基于信息熵模型的大气污染物排放配额分配研究

发布时间：2018-05-10 16:42

本文选题：信息熵 + 总量控制　；参考：《浙江理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：以煤炭为主要能源消费方式的工业化粗放式发展带来的高强度、高集中度大气污染物排放,使我国很多城市各种环境污染问题井喷式爆发。大气污染一方面严重影响人们身体健康,另一方面,由于污染治理带来的成本也阻碍了我国经济的发展,于是,控制大气污染物总量排放作为一种行之有效的治污手段应运而生。而要实现大气污染物总量排放控制目标,就要对污染物排放进行合理的总量分配,将污染物排放量具体分配给各地区后,才能对总量排放进行有效的控制。当前,我国对于大气污染物总量的分配方法研究虽然有很多,但很少有涉及怎样将总量控制目标公平而又有效地分配给各排污者,大都是从公平或者效率最大化的一个方面进行总量分配。考虑公平方面的大气污染物总量分配方案,大都采取主观赋权的方法来分配,而主观赋权的分配方案由于过多的人为主观意愿,本来就存在着不合理性；基于效率最大化的大气污染物总量分配的研究,则还停留在理论阶段。这些现实,无疑都会影响到国家对大气污染物总量控制目标的实现。为此,本文运用信息熵这一物理学概念,其能够对系统的均衡性进行评价的特性,建立了基于信息熵模型的大气污染物分配模型。在综合考虑我国各省市与大气污染物排放有关的因素客观差异的前提下,从效率与公平两方面同时考虑,选取影响大气污染物总量分配的指标体系,同时确定总量分配模型的技术路线、应用规则、约束条件以及计算方法,最后求解出各省市污染物总量分配目标值。并以我国SO_2总量排放为例,将这一分配方法应用到我国SO_2总量分配中,首先对我国SO_2排放进行了基于现状的信息熵值分析；然后,利用环境库兹涅茨曲线模型(EKC)对我国2015年SO_2总量排放进行了科学的预测,并将此预测值作为2015年我国SO_2排放的总量控制目标,以2012年为基准年,设定了四种不同的SO_2总量优化分配方案；最后,通过对比不同优化方案下的加权信息熵值大小,得出了最优的SO_2总量分配方案,并对基于信息熵的总量分配模型做了评价。本文主要得出以下结论：基于现状的信息熵值表明：我国各省市经济发展差异总体上越来越小、单位土地面积排放的SO_2总量在逐步减小,这些结论与我国当前的实际情况相符合；总量分配模型的结果表明：我国SO_2总量排放重点削减的省份有河北、山西、内蒙古、吉林、山东、云南、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆等,削减目标次之的省份是黑龙江、江西与河南等,总量分配结果能够较好地体现当前我国SO_2排放的实际,同时也能够满足总量控制的基本要求。基于模型评价的结果分析表明：优化后分配方案一的加权信息熵值比优化前变大,一方面体现了优化的合理性,另一方面说明了用EKC模型预测SO_2排放总量的可靠性。总之,本文建立的基于信息熵模型的大气污染物总量分配模型,为污染物排放总量分配提供了一个新的视角,同时,积极开展排污权交易制度等工作对完善我国大气污染物总量控制策略具有重大的意义,为其它类型污染物总量分配与总量控制策略也提供了一定的借鉴作用。
[Abstract]:The industrial extensive development of coal as the main energy consumption pattern brings high intensity and high concentration of air pollutants, which makes the blowout of various environmental pollution problems in many cities of our country. On the one hand, air pollution seriously affects people's health. On the other hand, the cost caused by pollution control has also hindered the economy of our country. As a result, the control of the total emission of air pollutants has emerged as an effective means of pollution control. In order to achieve the goal of controlling the total emission of air pollutants, it is necessary to allocate the total amount of pollutants in a reasonable amount, and then assign the pollutant emission to various regions in order to effectively control the total emission. At present, there are many studies on the total amount of air pollutant distribution in China, but there are few concerns about how to allocate the total amount control objective fairly and effectively to all the polluters. Most of them allocate the total amount from one aspect of fairness or efficiency maximization. The allocation scheme of subjective empowerment is allocated, and the allocation scheme of subjective empowerment is unreasonable because of too many subjective intentions. The study of the total amount distribution of air pollutants based on the maximum efficiency is still in the theoretical stage. These realities will undoubtedly affect the state's goal of controlling the total amount of air pollutants. For this reason, this paper uses the concept of information entropy, which can evaluate the equilibrium of the system, and establishes an air pollutant distribution model based on the information entropy model, which is based on two aspects of efficiency and fairness on the premise of considering the objective differences of the factors related to the emission of air pollutants in China. At the same time, we choose the index system that affects the total amount distribution of the air pollutants, and determine the technical route of the total amount distribution model, the application rules, the constraint conditions and the calculation method, and finally solve the target value of the total amount distribution of the pollutants in various provinces and cities. Taking the total emission of SO_2 in China as an example, this distribution method is applied to the total amount distribution of SO_2 in China. Firstly, the information entropy analysis based on the status quo of China's SO_2 emission is analyzed. Then, the environmental Kuznets curve model (EKC) is used to predict the total emission of SO_2 in China in 2015, and the forecast value is used as the total amount control target of the SO_2 emission in China in 2015, and four different kinds of SO_2 are set in 2012. In the end, the optimal SO_2 total allocation scheme is obtained by comparing the weighted information entropy value of different optimization schemes, and the total allocation model based on information entropy is evaluated. The following conclusion is drawn in this paper: the information entropy value based on the present situation shows that the overall economic development difference in China's provinces and cities is the overall difference. The total amount of SO_2 emissions per unit land area is gradually decreasing. These conclusions are in line with the actual situation in China. The results of the total amount distribution model show that the provinces of China's total emission reduction are Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Shandong, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and so on. The primary provinces are Heilongjiang, Jiangxi and Henan. The total distribution results can well reflect the actual SO_2 emission in our country and meet the basic requirements of the total amount control. On the other hand, the reliability of the total amount of SO_2 emission is predicted by EKC model. In a word, the total distribution model of air pollutants based on the information entropy model provides a new perspective for the distribution of the total amount of pollutants. At the same time, actively carrying out the pollution emission trading system and so on to improve the air pollution in China. The total volume control strategy is of great significance, and it also provides a reference for other types of pollutant total allocation and total control strategy.

【学位授予单位】：浙江理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X51

【参考文献】