中国环境质量拐点:基于EKC的实证判断

发布时间：2018-05-10 23:22

  本文选题：环境库兹涅茨曲线 + 经济增长　； 参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2016年10期

【摘要】：促进环境质量改善是“十三五”时期实现绿色发展和最终全面建成小康社会的重要目标和任务。随着经济进入新常态和环境治理政策的强势推进,中国环境质量是否已经跨越峰值和进入持续改善的通道?本文基于环境库兹涅茨曲线这一理论工具,依据环境统计数据和国际经验事实判断中国是否到达环境库兹涅茨曲线的拐点和具备促使环境质量持续改善的经济特征。首先,应用中国各省份1998—2013年的面板数据,对人均收入水平与主要大气污染物排放的关系进行回归拟合发现,人均烟粉尘排放自1998年以来持续下降,人均二氧化硫、氮氧化物排放均在“十二五”中前期到达峰值。大部分东部省份已经越过环境库兹涅茨曲线的拐点,但环境质量改善仍然缓慢。多数中部省份处于峰值阶段,而西部省份大都处于经济增长与环境质量恶化的矛盾阶段。其次,基于污染物排放的驱动因素框架,将中国当前的经济特征与美、日、韩三国跨越环境库兹涅茨曲线拐点的经验进行比较,结论表明中国目前已基本具备了跨越环境库兹涅茨曲线拐点的经济驱动条件,但是相对滞后的城镇化进程将会导致污染物排放峰值的扁平化和波动性。以主要污染物排放在2014年的基础上削减30%—40%作为环境质量全面改善的转折点判断,中国环境质量将在2025年左右趋于全面改善。最后,为了促进环境质量全面改善,认为应该根据各地区经济发展与环境污染形势的不同,实施差别化环境治理政策。同时积极防范新一轮城镇化过程中的环境风险,进一步强化区域环境污染的协同治理。
[Abstract]:Promoting the improvement of environmental quality is the important goal and task of realizing green development and building a well-off society in the 13th Five-Year Plan period. With the economy entering the new normal and the strong promotion of environmental governance policy, has China's environmental quality crossed the peak and entered the path of continuous improvement? Based on the environmental Kuznets curve as a theoretical tool, this paper judges whether China has reached the inflection point of the environmental Kuznets curve and has the economic characteristics to promote the continuous improvement of the environmental quality according to the environmental statistics data and the international empirical facts. First of all, using the panel data from 1998 to 2013, the relationship between the per capita income level and the emission of major air pollutants is fitted. It is found that the per capita smoke dust emissions have been decreasing since 1998, and the per capita sulfur dioxide emissions have been decreasing. The emission of nitrogen oxides reached its peak in the middle and early period of the 12th Five-Year Plan. Most eastern provinces have crossed the inflection point of the environmental Kuznets curve, but the improvement of environmental quality is still slow. Most of the central provinces are in the peak stage, while most of the western provinces are in the contradictory stage of economic growth and environmental quality deterioration. Secondly, based on the framework of the driving factors of pollutant emissions, the current economic characteristics of China are compared with the experiences of the United States, Japan and South Korea crossing the inflection point of the environmental Kuznets curve. The conclusion shows that China has the economic driving conditions to cross the inflection point of the environmental Kuznets curve, but the lagging urbanization process will result in the flattening and fluctuation of the peak emission of pollutants. Based on the 30-40% reduction of major pollutant emissions in 2014 as the turning point for overall improvement of environmental quality, China's environmental quality will tend to improve in 2025. Finally, in order to promote the overall improvement of environmental quality, it is considered that the differential environmental treatment policy should be implemented according to the different economic development and environmental pollution situation in different regions. At the same time, the environmental risks in the new round of urbanization should be prevented actively, and regional environmental pollution should be further strengthened.
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本文编号：1871381