我国城镇化、产业结构与雾霾动态关系研究——基于省际面板数据的实证检验

发布时间：2018-05-16 05:41

本文选题：PM. + 城镇化　；参考：《生态经济》2016年06期

【摘要】：采用我国29个省(市、区)2001~2010年面板数据,分析我国城镇化、产业结构与PM2.5之间的动态关系。面板单位根检验果显示各变量是I(0)过程;Pedroni和Kao协整检验表明变量之间存在协整关系;FMOLS回归发现,就我国总体来说,城镇化水平和第二产业比重的提高会增加PM2.5浓度。从区域来看,东部和中部城镇化水平的提高会加重雾霾污染问题,西部地区城镇化水平的提高反而会缓解雾霾污染问题。西部产业结构对PM2.5浓度的影响最大,其后依次为中部、东部。短期内,我国总体存在着从城镇化、第二产业比重到PM2.5的单向Granger原因,从城镇化到第二产业比重的双向Granger原因。东部与西部短期内的Granger因果关系与全国总体相同,中部地区城镇化和PM2.5不存在因果关系。长期内,我国总体及东、中、西部地区PM2.5、城镇化、产业结构之间存在着双向的Granger因果关系。存在误差修正机制,当系统偏离长期均衡时,三个变量在调整过程中能发挥重要作用,使其重新回到均衡状态。最后,提出我国总体要加快工业绿色转型,实行住宅产业化和绿色建筑、各区域实施有差异化的产业政策、全国总体要减缓城镇化进程,在综合考虑环境的基础上,对城镇发展进行合理的规划、根据不同区域特点推进新型城镇化进程、加强环境规制、防治雾霾等建议。
[Abstract]:The dynamic relationship between urbanization, industrial structure and PM2.5 is analyzed by using panel data from 2001 to 2010 in 29 provinces (cities and districts) in China. Panel unit root test showed that the variables were I / O). The results of Pedroni and Kao cointegration tests showed that there was a cointegration relationship between variables and FMOLs regression found that, in China as a whole, the increase of urbanization level and the proportion of secondary industry would increase the concentration of PM2.5. From the regional point of view, the increase of urbanization level in eastern and central regions will aggravate the problem of haze pollution, while the improvement of urbanization level in western region will alleviate the problem of haze pollution. The industrial structure in the west had the greatest influence on the concentration of PM2.5, followed by the central and eastern regions. In the short term, there are unidirectional Granger reasons from urbanization, secondary industry to PM2.5, and two-way Granger from urbanization to secondary industry. The Granger causality between the east and the west is the same as that of the whole country in the short term, but there is no causality between urbanization and PM2.5 in the central region. In the long run, there is a two-way Granger causality between PM2.5, urbanization and industrial structure in China. There is an error correction mechanism. When the system deviates from the long-term equilibrium, the three variables can play an important role in the adjustment process and make the system return to the equilibrium state. Finally, it is proposed that China should speed up the green transformation of industry, implement housing industrialization and green building, implement different industrial policies in various regions, slow down the process of urbanization in the whole country, and consider the environment comprehensively. According to the characteristics of different regions, we should make a rational plan for the development of cities and towns, promote the process of new urbanization, strengthen the environmental regulation, and prevent and cure haze, and so on.
【作者单位】：南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院;南京晓庄学院商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(15BGL144) 教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目(10YJC790005) 江苏省社会科学基金项目(12DDB009) 江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(KYZZ15_0106)
【分类号】：X51;F299.21;F121.3;F224

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