基于在线大气化学模式太阳能预报的改进

发布时间：2018-05-24 07:49

本文选题：WRF/CHEM + 太阳能预报　；参考：《生态环境学报》2016年09期

【摘要】：基于在线大气化学模式WRF/chem,考虑气溶胶直接辐射效应,模拟2015年1月1日—12月31日天津地区地面太阳辐射通量,并与未考虑气溶胶辐射效应的同参数中尺度气象模式WRF进行对比,分析在雾霾频发的天津地区,增加气溶胶直接辐射效应后对太阳能预报的改进效果。结果表明,在雾霾频发的天津地区,气溶胶对地面太阳辐射预测的影响不可忽略,以2015年计算,全年影响均值27.42 W·m~(-2),即全年太阳辐射辐照量下降864 MJ·m~(-2);在太阳能预报重点关注的9:00—16:00,影响值约为73.3 W·m~(-2)。由于气溶胶的作用,全年有6.3%的时日太阳辐射被削减50%,19%的时日太阳辐射被削减超过30%,尤其是在雾霾频发的11月—次年2月,约有18%~25%的太阳辐射+6被大气中气溶胶吸收和散射而未能到达地面。大气化学模式WRF/chem由于考虑了气溶胶直接辐射效应,可以显著地改善地面太阳辐射的预报性能,降低模式预报的正偏差,其均值偏差由44.74 W·m~(-2)降低到16.09 W·m~(-2),相关系数由0.88提高到0.92,相对均方根误差由36.6%降低到23.2%,相对误差由27.8%下降到15%。在雾霾影响较为严重的区域,基于在线大气化学模式开展的太阳能预报效果优于中尺度天气模式预报。
[Abstract]:Based on the on-line atmospheric chemical model WRF / schema, considering the direct radiation effect of aerosol, the surface solar radiation flux in Tianjin from January 1 to December 31, 2015 is simulated. Compared with the mesoscale meteorological model (WRF) which does not take into account the aerosol radiation effect, the improved effect of direct aerosol radiation on solar energy prediction is analyzed in Tianjin, where the aerosol radiation effect is increased frequently. The results show that the influence of aerosols on surface solar radiation prediction can not be ignored in Tianjin, where haze occurs frequently. The annual mean value of influence is 27.42 W / m ~ (-2), that is, the annual solar radiation is reduced by 864 MJ / m ~ (-2), and the influence value is about 73.3 W / m ~ (-2) at 9: 00-16: 00, which is the focus of solar energy prediction. As a result of aerosol action, solar radiation is reduced by 50% to 19% of the year's solar radiation by more than 30%, especially in November-February the following year, when haze occurs frequently. About 18 / 25% of solar radiation is absorbed and scattered by aerosols in the atmosphere and cannot reach the ground. The atmospheric chemical model WRF/chem can significantly improve the prediction performance of surface solar radiation and reduce the positive deviation of model prediction because of the consideration of aerosol direct radiation effect. The mean deviation was reduced from 44.74 W / m ~ (-2) to 16.09 W ~ (m ~ (-1), the correlation coefficient was increased from 0.88 to 0.92, the relative root mean square error was reduced from 36.6% to 23.2%, and the relative error was decreased from 27.8% to 15%. The solar energy prediction based on the on-line atmospheric chemistry model is superior to the mesoscale weather model in the area where haze is seriously affected.
【作者单位】：天津市环境气象中心;天津市气象科学研究所;天津市气候中心;
【基金】：中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2016-005) 天津科技计划项目(14ZCZDGX00037) 环保公益行业专项(201409001)
【分类号】：X513;TK51

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