金砖国家城镇化发展对碳排放影响的比较研究

发布时间：2018-06-06 02:23

本文选题：城镇化 + 碳排放　；参考：《经济问题探索》2016年09期

【摘要】：为了衡量金砖国家的城镇化发展可能造成的环境损害,本文在综合借鉴STIRPAT模型和EKC模型的基础上,构建了一个考察金砖国家城镇化发展对碳排放影响的计量模型,并对其开展了相关实证研究。结果发现:对金砖国家整体而言,城镇化率、人口、人均GDP、工业化率、能源强度、能源结构等都是碳排放量的显著影响因素,但城镇化发展是导致碳排放上升的最主要影响因素;金砖国家总体的城镇化发展与碳排放之间存在"倒U"关系,但各国城镇化发展对碳排放影响的非线性关系不尽相同。中国和印度在统计上有显著的潜在"倒U"关系,而巴西、南非、俄罗斯为潜在的"正U"关系;目前各金砖国家基本都处于碳排放随着城镇化率上升而上升的阶段,总体上还面临较大的减排压力。由各国碳排放的城镇化弹性系数来看,俄罗斯、巴西碳排放上升对城镇化发展的反应程度和碳减排压力较大,印度、南非和中国相对较小。最后,提出了金砖国家城镇化低碳发展的相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:In order to measure the possible environmental damage caused by the development of urbanization in BRICS countries, this paper constructs a measurement model to study the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions in BRICS countries based on the STIRPAT model and EKC model. And carries on the related empirical research to it. The results show that the urbanization rate, population, GDP per capita, industrialization rate, energy intensity and energy structure are the significant factors influencing carbon emissions for the BRICS countries as a whole. However, the development of urbanization is the most important factor that leads to the increase of carbon emissions. There is a "inverted U" relationship between the overall development of urbanization and carbon emissions in BRICS countries, but the nonlinear relationship between urbanization development and carbon emissions is different in different countries. China and India have statistically significant potential "inverted U" relationships, while Brazil, South Africa and Russia have potential "positive U" relationships; the BRICS countries are basically at the stage of rising carbon emissions as urbanization rates rise. On the whole, there is also a greater pressure to reduce emissions. According to the elasticity coefficient of urbanization, Russia and Brazil are more responsive to urbanization and pressure to reduce carbon emissions, India, South Africa and China are relatively small. Finally, put forward the BRICS urbanization low-carbon development of the relevant policy recommendations.
【作者单位】：北京大学;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“中国城乡发展协调研究”(13jjd790001)的阶段性成果,项目负责人:白雪秋
【分类号】：X22;F299.1

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