基于系统动力学的三峡库区生态安全后续发展预警评价

发布时间：2018-06-16 17:22

本文选题：重庆三峡库区 + 生态安全　；参考：《重庆交通大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：三峡水库是世界上最大的水利枢纽工程,2009年三峡大坝主体工程完成,并逐渐发挥综合效益。然而,三峡工程可能引发的生态安全问题,仍然是一个亟待解决的问题。因此,解决好三峡库区后续发展过程中的生态安全问题对于三峡工程的正常运行和功能发挥,促进库区民众与自然和谐相处,实现社会经济全面协调可持续发展具有重要的意义。本研究以重庆市三峡库区后续发展为关注点,从制约三峡库区生态安全后续发展的胁迫因子及胁迫机理入手,运用Vensim软件,构建生态安全系统动力学模型,通过历史数据和灵敏度分析对模型的可行性进行检验,在此基础上进行不同情景设定和模拟,并以变权-物元分析模型为手段,进行动态预警评价。具体结果如下:(1)基于对三峡库区的生态安全现状的剖析,确定了三峡库区生态安全后续发展的胁迫因子。根据胁迫因子的影响类型,将其分为地质地貌条件、资源环境限制、社会经济发展等方面,其中又具体包括水污染、大气污染、固废污染、水土流失、土地利用及经济发展等因子。(2)基于确定的重庆市三峡库区胁迫因子及胁迫机理,利用Vensim软件,构建了三峡库区后续发展系统动力学模型,建立包括社会子系统、经济子系统和环境子系统在内的系统动力学模型,并通过了历史行为检验和灵敏度检验,表明该模型是有效和可行的。(3)依据DPSIR模型的原理,从驱动力、压力、状态、影响、响应五方面构建了三峡库区生态安全后续发展评价指标体系,并采用AHP法确定权重。对建立的模型设定了可持续发展型、自然状态型和资源衰竭型等三种情景,并进行模拟,结果显示:可持续发展型的模式是符合生态安全水平的发展模式。(4)运用变权-物元分析模型对重庆三峡库区生态安全的预警等级进行了测度,建立了安全评价子系统,警情预报子系统和决策管理子系统在内的生态安全预警指标体系。测度结果表明:重庆三峡库区的生态安全警度呈现较低的状态,库区今后的生态环境保护工作中,要积极提高经济水平,同时适当控制人口增长,提高城镇化率,实现经济发展与生态保护的协调发展。
[Abstract]:The three Gorges Reservoir is the largest water conservancy project in the world. In 2009, the main project of the three Gorges Dam was completed, and the comprehensive benefit was gradually brought into play. However, the ecological security problem caused by the three Gorges Project is still an urgent problem to be solved. Therefore, solving the problem of ecological security in the follow-up development of the three Gorges Reservoir area will bring the normal operation and function of the three Gorges Project into full play, and promote the people of the reservoir area to live in harmony with nature. It is of great significance to realize the overall coordinated and sustainable development of social economy. This study focuses on the follow-up development of the three Gorges Reservoir area in Chongqing, starting with the stress factors and the stress mechanism that restrict the subsequent development of ecological security in the three Gorges Reservoir area, and using Vensim software to build a dynamic model of ecological security system. The feasibility of the model is tested by historical data and sensitivity analysis. On this basis, different scenarios are set up and simulated, and dynamic early-warning evaluation is carried out by means of variable-weight matter-element analysis model. The specific results are as follows: (1) based on the analysis of the present situation of ecological security in the three Gorges Reservoir area, the stress factors for the subsequent development of the ecological security in the three Gorges Reservoir area are determined. According to the influence types of stress factors, they are divided into geological and geomorphological conditions, resource and environmental constraints, socio-economic development and other aspects, including water pollution, air pollution, solid waste pollution, soil erosion, etc. Based on the determined stress factors and the mechanism of stress in the three Gorges Reservoir area of Chongqing, the dynamic model of the subsequent development system of the three Gorges Reservoir area is constructed by using Vensim software, which includes the social subsystem. The model of system dynamics, including economic subsystem and environment subsystem, has passed the historical behavior test and sensitivity test, which shows that the model is effective and feasible, according to the principle of DPSIR model, from the driving force, pressure, state, influence. The evaluation index system of ecological security in the three Gorges reservoir area was constructed in five aspects, and the weight was determined by AHP method. The three scenarios of sustainable development, natural state and resource exhaustion are set up and simulated. The results show that the sustainable development model is a development model that accords with the level of ecological security. (4) by using the variable weight matter-element analysis model, the early warning level of ecological security in the three Gorges Reservoir area of Chongqing is measured, and a safety evaluation subsystem is established. Warning index system of ecological security, including warning subsystem and decision management subsystem. The results show that the ecological security alert of the three Gorges Reservoir area in Chongqing is low. In the future ecological environment protection in the reservoir area, we should actively improve the economic level, at the same time properly control the population growth and increase the urbanization rate. To realize the coordinated development of economic development and ecological protection.
【学位授予单位】：重庆交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X826

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