铅暴露的环境健康风险评估模型的本土化研究

发布时间：2018-06-25 06:46

  本文选题：IEUBK模型 + 本土化　； 参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2016年02期

【摘要】：我国现阶段重金属污染引发的群体事件频繁发生,其中铅污染事件尤为突出和严重。铅污染暴露对儿童健康损害的严重性、不可逆性以及铅污染后果的积累性和潜伏性特点,使得铅暴露的环境健康风险评估对中国的铅污染防治具有重要意义。目前,国际上最常用的铅污染暴露的儿童健康风险评估模型是美国EPA开发的IEUBK模型。为使IEUBK模型在中国得到更好的应用,本文首先对美国IEUBK模型系统做出如下本土化:1鉴于中国儿童的饮食结构、生活习惯及暴露参数等方面与欧美儿童存在的差异,对IEUBK模型暴露模块中的膳食模块和土壤-灰尘模块的数学模型进行改进;2探讨IEUBK模型中生理毒物代谢多隔室模型的高速精确的迭代算法。即针对生理毒物代谢多隔室模型的线性特征,通过离散化方法转化为线性方程组,引进中间变量,设计出了不需要进行高阶矩阵计算、存贮量较小、计算速度快且大样本模拟计算时优点明显的模型求解的一次迭代算法;3根据改进后的模型算法,编制模型的底层代码程序,并优化设计出友好的IEUBK模型系统中文输入界面。接着,对本土化IEUBK模型系统进行测试,测试结果表明:模型迭代算法的计算快速、结果准确,输入界面友好。然后,对本土化IEUBK模型进行实证分析,实证结果显示:本土化IEUBK模型的血铅预测值与血铅实测值的统计学差异并不显著。因此,本土化的IEUBK模型可在中国推广应用。最后,本文探讨了本土化的IEUBK模型系统的进一步改进方向及其在中国环评、环境标准制定及环境诉讼等方面的应用。
[Abstract]:Heavy metal pollution caused by heavy metal pollution occurred frequently in China at present, among which lead pollution was especially prominent and serious. The environmental health risk assessment of lead exposure is of great significance to the prevention and control of lead pollution in China because of the severity irreversibility and accumulative and latent characteristics of lead exposure to children's health. At present, the most commonly used risk assessment model for children exposed to lead pollution is the IEUBK model developed by EPA. In order to get a better application of IEUBK model in China, this paper firstly makes the following localization of the American IEUBK model system: 1 in view of the differences of Chinese children's dietary structure, living habits and exposure parameters with those of European and American children. To improve the mathematical model of diet module and soil-dust module in exposure module of IEUBK model, the high speed and accurate iterative algorithm of multi-compartment model of physiological poison metabolism in IEUBK model is discussed. According to the linear characteristics of the multi-compartment model of physiological toxicant metabolism, the discrete method is used to transform the multicompartment model into a linear equation group. The intermediate variable is introduced, and the high order matrix calculation is not needed, and the storage amount is small. Based on the improved model algorithm, the model bottom code program is compiled, and the friendly Chinese input interface of IEUBK model system is optimized. Then, the local IEUBK model system is tested. The test results show that the model iteration algorithm is fast, accurate and friendly to input interface. Then, the empirical analysis of the localization IEUBK model shows that there is no significant difference between the predicted value of blood lead and the actual value of blood lead in the localization IEUBK model. Therefore, the localization IEUBK model can be popularized and applied in China. Finally, this paper discusses the direction of further improvement of the localization IEUBK model system and its application in environmental assessment, environmental standard formulation and environmental litigation in China.
【作者单位】： 中南财经政法大学博士后流动站;湖北经济学院统计学院;湖北水事研究中心;
【基金】：教育部人文社科青年项目“科学与法律融合下的环境健康监管研究——以铅污染为例”(编号:14YJC820062) 环保部重大公益项目“环境铅、镉污染人群健康危害的法律监管研究”(编号:201109058) 教育厅人文社科项目“城镇化进程中湖北省农村面源污染控制研究”(编号:14Q073)
【分类号】：X820.4
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本文编号：2065034