基于熵权理论的省域二氧化碳排放配额研究

发布时间：2018-07-11 14:13

本文选题：二氧化碳 + 灰色预测　；参考：《大连理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着工业化和城市化进程的不断推进,我国能源消费也越来越大,随之而来的二氧化碳排放量也在不断增加,由此带来的环境问题也愈加突出。我国政府在2009年宣布了自愿减排目标,即到2020年单位GDP二氧化碳排放量在2005年的基础上下降40%～45%,要实现这一目标需要各省(市、自治区)共同分担减排责任。然而,与其他国家相比,我国各省(市、自治区)的经济发展水平、能源结构、能源利用效率、二氧化碳排放强度等均存在较大差异,这使得我们不能简单的照搬其他国家的分配经验,而是必须寻找更为适合我国国情的分配原则和方法。本文在对国内外总量分配的原则、方法进行综合分析的基础上,首先通过将灰色预测和趋势线预测的方差-协方差法组合预测我国2020年二氧化碳排放量,然后结合能源作为战略性资源的特点,充分考虑地区能耗现状及未来发展趋势,在保障稳定发展的前提下,采用“先确定总量,再计算增量,最终分配数量”的方法,通过构建指标体系,选择9个代表性指标表征各地区来表现了公平性、差异性和可持续性原则,对研究对象进行定量化分析；同时通过引入熵权理论,基于历史数据的选择,体现分配对象的差异性和可持续性,既客观描述各指标的重要性,也能较好反映各省市碳排放特点,从而能得到更符合地域特色的分配系数,从而构建基于多指标混合评价的熵权决策法模型,计算出各省域的碳排放配额。这种多指标体系与熵权理论相结合的方法,既兼顾了公平、差异和可持续原则,也能发挥各主体的减排积极性,具有一定可操作性,最后通过倒逼机制对各省市降低二氧化碳排放和经济发展转型发挥了良好的调控作用。
[Abstract]:With the development of industrialization and urbanization, the energy consumption in China is increasing, and the carbon dioxide emissions are also increasing, and the environmental problems are becoming more and more prominent. In 2009, our government announced a voluntary emission reduction target, that is, the carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP of 2020 will be reduced by 40% and 45% on the basis of 2005. To achieve this goal, all provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) need to share the responsibility for reducing emissions. However, compared with other countries, the level of economic development, energy structure, energy efficiency, carbon dioxide emission intensity and so on in the provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) of our country are quite different. This makes us not simply copy the distribution experience of other countries, but must find more suitable distribution principles and methods. On the basis of comprehensive analysis of the principles and methods of total quantity distribution at home and abroad, this paper first forecasts China's carbon dioxide emissions in 2020 by combining the variance-covariance method of grey forecast and trend line prediction. Then, combining the characteristics of energy as a strategic resource, fully considering the present situation of regional energy consumption and the future development trend, and under the premise of ensuring stable development, we adopt the method of "determining the total amount first, then calculating the increment and the final assigned amount". By constructing the index system and selecting nine representative indicators to represent each region, the principles of fairness, difference and sustainability are represented, and the quantitative analysis of the research object is carried out. At the same time, the selection of historical data is based on the introduction of entropy weight theory. Reflecting the difference and sustainability of the distribution objects, not only the importance of the indicators can be described objectively, but also the characteristics of carbon emissions of provinces and cities can be better reflected, so that the distribution coefficient can be obtained more in line with the regional characteristics. Thus, the entropy weight decision model based on multi-index mixed evaluation is constructed, and the carbon emission quotas in each province are calculated. This method, which combines the multi-index system and entropy weight theory, not only takes into account the principles of fairness, difference and sustainability, but also can give play to the initiative of various subjects in reducing emissions, and has certain maneuverability. Finally, it plays a good role in reducing carbon dioxide emission and economic development.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X321

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