京津冀机动车污染物排放总量测算及减排防控策略研究

发布时间：2018-07-23 16:24

【摘要】：随着雾霾天气出现的频次越来越高,京津冀地区面临着前所未有的大气环境污染问题,并且,伴随地区经济的快速发展,京津冀地区机动车的保有量增长也十分迅速,由机动车排放的污染物已成为造成雾霾天气不可忽视的重要来源。与此同时,京津冀协同发展已上升为重大国家战略,环保领域的一体化发展已成为未来京津冀一体化发展的重要环节,因此,从京津冀区域角度出发,研究区域机动车污染物的总体排放情况对区域污染治理具有十分重要的意义。本文首先运用年均行驶里程法建立了2007-2011年京津冀四种常规的机动车大气污染物(CO、NOx、HC、PM)总量多年排放清单,并从污染物排放趋势、分车型污染物排放特征、分国家标准污染物排放特征以及区域分担率等方面对总量排放清单进行了特征分析;其次,本文结合京津冀机动车污染治理现状,以2011年为基准年,设计了2016年五种总量减排情景,分别是BAU(无控制)情景、ESV(淘汰黄标车)情景、HSR(提高排放标准)情景、PTP(公共交通优先)情景和EMC(摩托车限行)情景,并计算分析了每种减排情景下京津冀机动车污染物总量的削减比例。最后,结合对研究结果的分析提出了京津冀机动车污染物总量控制的对策以及京津冀进行机动车污染联合防控的管理体系。研究发现:1)2007-2011年京津冀四种机动车污染物排放总量呈现逐年递增的趋势。其中,2011年,一氧化碳总量为253.98万吨,氮氧化物总量为102.50万吨,碳氢化合物排放总量为52.87万吨,颗粒物总量为4.87万吨;2)从车型角度看,对四种污染物总量排放贡献最大的车型是:一氧化碳——轻型汽油客车(LDGV),氮氧化物——重型柴油车(HDV、HDT),碳氢化合物——摩托车(MC),颗粒物——重型柴油车(HDV、HDT);3)从排放标准看,对四种污染物总量最大的是国0和国1标准的老旧车辆;4)从区域分担率看,河北省由于机动车保有量大,对四种污染物总量的贡献最大;5)从情景分析看,淘汰黄标车对京津冀机动车污染物排放总量的削减效果最为明显,长期来看,实施综合的减排控制措施、建立区域机动车污染联合防治体系、出台机动车总量控制专项法律才是治理区域机动车污染的根本。
[Abstract]:With the increasing frequency of haze weather, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is facing an unprecedented problem of atmospheric pollution, and with the rapid development of regional economy, the number of motor vehicles in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is also increasing rapidly. Pollutants emitted by motor vehicles have become an important source of haze weather. At the same time, the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has become an important national strategy, and the integration development in the field of environmental protection has become an important link in the future development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration. Therefore, from the perspective of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, It is of great significance to study the overall emission of regional motor vehicle pollutants for regional pollution control. In this paper, the annual mileage method is first used to establish the annual emission inventory of the total amount of four kinds of conventional motor vehicle atmospheric pollutants (COHNOXN HCPM) in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei from 2007 to 2011, and from the pollutant emission trend and the emission characteristics of pollutants by vehicle type, The characteristics of total emission inventory are analyzed from the aspects of national pollutant emission characteristics and regional share rate. Secondly, this paper combines the status quo of motor vehicle pollution control in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, taking 2011 as the base year. Five total emission reduction scenarios were designed in 2016. They were BAU scenarios and EMC scenarios. The reduction ratio of the total amount of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei motor vehicle pollutants was calculated and analyzed under each emission reduction scenario. Finally, based on the analysis of the research results, the countermeasures of total pollution control of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei vehicles and the management system of combined prevention and control of motor vehicle pollution in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are put forward. It is found that the total emission of four kinds of motor vehicle pollutants from Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei increased year by year from 2007 to 2011. Of these, in 2011, the total amount of carbon monoxide was 2.5398 million tons, the total amount of nitrogen oxides was 1.025 million tons, the total amount of hydrocarbon emissions was 528700 tons, and the total amount of particulate matter was 48700 tons. The models that contribute the most to the total emission of the four pollutants are: carbon monoxide light gasoline bus (LDGV), nitrogen oxide heavy diesel vehicle (HDV HDT) and hydrocarbon-motorcycle (MC), particulate-heavy diesel vehicle (HDV / HDT) from the point of view of emission standards. The largest total amount of the four pollutants is the old vehicles of Guo0 and Guo1. From the regional sharing rate, Hebei province has the largest contribution to the total amount of the four pollutants because of the large number of motor vehicles. 5) from the perspective of scenario analysis, The elimination of yellow standard vehicles has the most obvious effect on the reduction of the total amount of motor vehicle pollutants emitted by Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei vehicles. In the long run, comprehensive emission reduction and control measures will be implemented and a joint regional vehicle pollution prevention and control system will be established. The introduction of motor vehicle total control of specific laws is the root of regional motor vehicle pollution.
【学位授予单位】：天津理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X734.2

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