基于STIRPAT模型的西北五省区碳排放峰值预测研究

发布时间：2018-07-28 15:05

【摘要】：利用STIRPAT模型对未来西北五省区碳排放峰值进行了预测。首先,对西北五省区1990~2012年的时间序列数据进行回归,得出西北五省区碳排放总体趋势;其次,对西北五省区碳排放峰值的出现时间与峰值额进行预测;最后,计算了西北五省区财富生态弹性。研究发现:技术与财富对峰值的影响较为重要。若碳排放强度下降速度与经济社会发展速度不能同步增长,则不能在2030年内出现峰值。若碳排放强度降低速度相比经济社会发展速度为快,则能推动碳排放提前达峰。同时现阶段的财富生态弹性富有弹性,可通过增加人均GDP使碳排放峰值提前。因此可以在西北五省区经济增长下,保持碳排放强度合理下降,西北五省区将能在2030年之前达峰,达峰时间为2020~2025年。这意味着西北五省区经济增长速度将高于全国水平,而碳排放强度的下降速度要高于全国水平,因此,保持碳排放强度的不断下降对西北五省区尽快达到碳排放峰值十分重要。
[Abstract]:The STIRPAT model is used to predict the peak of carbon emission in the five provinces of Northwest China. Firstly, the time series data from 1990 to 2012 are regressed to obtain the general trend of carbon emissions in the five northwest provinces. Secondly, the time and the peak value of the peak carbon emissions in the five northwest provinces are predicted. The ecological elasticity of wealth in five provinces of Northwest China is calculated. It is found that the influence of technology and wealth on peak value is more important. If the decreasing rate of carbon emission intensity and the speed of economic and social development can not increase simultaneously, it will not peak in 2030. If the reduction of carbon emission intensity is faster than that of economic and social development, it can promote carbon emissions to peak ahead of schedule. At the same time, the wealth ecological elasticity is elastic at present, and the peak of carbon emission can be advanced by increasing per capita GDP. Therefore, under the economic growth of the five provinces in Northwest China, the carbon emission intensity can be reduced reasonably, and the peak time will be 2020-2025 in the five northwest provinces before 2030. This means that the economic growth rate of the five northwest provinces and regions will be higher than the national level, and the decreasing rate of carbon emission intensity will be higher than the national level. Therefore, it is very important for the five northwest provinces to reach the peak of carbon emissions as soon as possible.
【作者单位】：新疆大学经济与管理学院;新疆大学创新管理研究中心;新疆商贸经济学校;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“资源型产业碳排放损益偏离分析与区域公平发展研究”(71463056);“资源型产业集群与制造业产业集群对区域经济增长方式影响路径异同研究”(71263051) 新疆普通高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地新疆大学创新管理研究中心一般项目“资源型产业损益偏离现象与多目标决策”(010115C07) 新疆大学博士创新基金项目“资源型产业碳排放经济收益与生态损害偏离形成机理——以新疆为例”(XJUBSCX-2014004)
【分类号】：X321

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