福建省生态足迹及其驱动因素分析
发布时间：2018-08-06 08:56
【摘要】：人类社会经过工业革命后经济得到了快速发展,但同时生态环境问题也在全球愈演愈烈,逐渐开始被人类所重视。为了测度社会的可持续发展状况,生态足迹模型应运而生,通过此模型的核算结果可以比较一个区域的总生态足迹和和其生态承载力,确定该地区可持续发展的程度。本文以福建省为研究区域,数据主要来源于《福建省统计年鉴》和《中国统计年鉴》,核算了福建省2000—2013年的生态足迹、承载力和赤字/盈余及其对应的人均值,且动态分析了上述指标,最后结合福建省经济社会发展状况等因素,利用偏最小二乘回归法(PLS)和灰色关联熵法共同筛选出各可能的因素,并估计相对重要因素对福建省生态足迹的驱动程度。结果显示,福建省生态足迹和人均生态足迹显著增加,其中碳吸收地足迹和人均碳吸收地足迹最大;该省生态承载力和人均生态承载力较为稳定;该省2000~2001年生态承载力大于当年的生态足迹,二者差值表现为盈余;2002~2013年各年生态足迹均要大于当年的生态承载力,二者差值呈现为赤字,且福建省的生态赤字及其人均生态赤字正在逐年上升,生态足迹多样性指数也在下降,说明该省近几年来的发展加大了对自然生态系统的压力,威胁了生态系统多样性,是不可持续的;与此同时福建省万元GDP生态足迹却在不断下降,经济发展能力指标加速,表明了福建省正在努力提升资源和能源的利用效率,其快速发展造成的生态代价也在不断降低。影响生态足迹的可能因素中,总人口数、能源消费总量、城镇居民家庭人均消费支出、第三产业产值、GDP和第二产业产值等因素对生态足迹呈正向促进作用,且影响由大到小排列;而农村人口、全社会固定资产投资额、第一产业产值和农村居民家庭平均每人总支出却有反向遏制作用,遏制作用依次减少。最后针对本文所做的研究做了一些展望:进一步完善生态足迹理论的核算方法;致力于其模型的动态分析及预测;结合生态足迹指标与经济社会发展等相关指标的联合研究。
[Abstract]:After the industrial revolution, the economy of human society has developed rapidly, but at the same time, the ecological environment problem is becoming more and more serious all over the world. In order to measure the sustainable development of society, ecological footprint model emerges as the times require. Through the accounting results of this model, the total ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of a region can be compared, and the degree of sustainable development in this area can be determined. In this paper, Fujian Province is taken as the study area. The data are mainly from the Statistical Yearbook of Fujian Province and the Statistical Yearbook of China. The ecological footprint, carrying capacity and deficit / surplus of Fujian Province from 2000 to 2013 and their corresponding human mean values are calculated. The dynamic analysis of the above indexes is made. Finally, combined with the economic and social development of Fujian Province and other factors, the partial least square regression (PLS) method and the grey correlation entropy method are used to screen out the possible factors. And estimate the driving degree of relative important factors to Fujian ecological footprint. The results show that the ecological footprint and the per capita ecological footprint of Fujian Province are significantly increased, in which the carbon footprint and the per capita footprint are the largest, the ecological carrying capacity and the per capita ecological carrying capacity of Fujian Province are relatively stable. The ecological carrying capacity of the province from 2000 to 2001 is larger than the ecological footprint of the current year, and the difference between the two shows that the ecological footprint of each year from 2002 to 2013 is larger than that of the current year, and the difference between the two shows a deficit. Moreover, the ecological deficit and its per capita ecological deficit in Fujian Province are increasing year by year, and the diversity index of ecological footprint is also decreasing, which indicates that the development of Fujian Province in recent years has increased the pressure on the natural ecosystem and threatened the diversity of the ecosystem. At the same time, the ecological footprint of 10,000 yuan GDP in Fujian Province is declining and the economic development capacity index is accelerating, indicating that Fujian Province is working hard to improve the efficiency of resources and energy use. The ecological cost of its rapid development is also decreasing. Among the possible factors affecting ecological footprint, such as the total population, the total energy consumption, the per capita consumption expenditure of urban households, the output value of the tertiary industry and the output value of the secondary industry, and so on, positively promote the ecological footprint. But the rural population, the investment of fixed assets of the whole society, the output value of the primary industry and the average total expenditure of the rural households have the reverse containment effect, which is reduced in turn. Finally, this paper makes some prospects for the research: to further improve the accounting method of ecological footprint theory; to focus on the dynamic analysis and prediction of its model; combined with the ecological footprint indicators and economic and social development and other related indicators of joint research.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X22
[Abstract]:After the industrial revolution, the economy of human society has developed rapidly, but at the same time, the ecological environment problem is becoming more and more serious all over the world. In order to measure the sustainable development of society, ecological footprint model emerges as the times require. Through the accounting results of this model, the total ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of a region can be compared, and the degree of sustainable development in this area can be determined. In this paper, Fujian Province is taken as the study area. The data are mainly from the Statistical Yearbook of Fujian Province and the Statistical Yearbook of China. The ecological footprint, carrying capacity and deficit / surplus of Fujian Province from 2000 to 2013 and their corresponding human mean values are calculated. The dynamic analysis of the above indexes is made. Finally, combined with the economic and social development of Fujian Province and other factors, the partial least square regression (PLS) method and the grey correlation entropy method are used to screen out the possible factors. And estimate the driving degree of relative important factors to Fujian ecological footprint. The results show that the ecological footprint and the per capita ecological footprint of Fujian Province are significantly increased, in which the carbon footprint and the per capita footprint are the largest, the ecological carrying capacity and the per capita ecological carrying capacity of Fujian Province are relatively stable. The ecological carrying capacity of the province from 2000 to 2001 is larger than the ecological footprint of the current year, and the difference between the two shows that the ecological footprint of each year from 2002 to 2013 is larger than that of the current year, and the difference between the two shows a deficit. Moreover, the ecological deficit and its per capita ecological deficit in Fujian Province are increasing year by year, and the diversity index of ecological footprint is also decreasing, which indicates that the development of Fujian Province in recent years has increased the pressure on the natural ecosystem and threatened the diversity of the ecosystem. At the same time, the ecological footprint of 10,000 yuan GDP in Fujian Province is declining and the economic development capacity index is accelerating, indicating that Fujian Province is working hard to improve the efficiency of resources and energy use. The ecological cost of its rapid development is also decreasing. Among the possible factors affecting ecological footprint, such as the total population, the total energy consumption, the per capita consumption expenditure of urban households, the output value of the tertiary industry and the output value of the secondary industry, and so on, positively promote the ecological footprint. But the rural population, the investment of fixed assets of the whole society, the output value of the primary industry and the average total expenditure of the rural households have the reverse containment effect, which is reduced in turn. Finally, this paper makes some prospects for the research: to further improve the accounting method of ecological footprint theory; to focus on the dynamic analysis and prediction of its model; combined with the ecological footprint indicators and economic and social development and other related indicators of joint research.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X22
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