基于WRF-CMAQ对江苏省2014年冬半年霾日的模拟与评估
发布时间：2018-08-09 09:45
【摘要】：评估了WRF/CMAQ数值模式对2014年10月—2015年3月江苏省冬半年霾日的模拟准确性,并探讨了导致霾日预报不准确的可能原因.研究表明:(1)WRF/CMAQ模型中霾日预报基准量相对湿度、PM2.5的模拟趋势与观测比较吻合.大气能见度模拟值与观测值的平均值误差为2~5km.临海及近海城市大气能见度模拟值普遍大于观测值,均方根误差超过10km以上.(2)能见度模拟较好的城市(南京、镇江、常州、苏州、扬州),观测霾日与模拟霾日之间误差小于10d,东边沿海城市盐城、南通、连云港等能见度模拟存在较大峰值的城市模拟最差误差超过10km以上,模拟出的霾日数远小于观测到的霾日数,误差超过20d.(3)对能见度预报可能造成偏差的原因进行了初步探讨,EC在PM2.5中所占比份模拟偏小、水溶性离子等模拟值被低估等造成气溶胶消光系数偏小以及部分地区相对湿度模拟值偏低,风速模拟偏大,都使得能见度模拟值偏大.
[Abstract]:The simulation accuracy of WRF/CMAQ numerical model for the winter haze days in Jiangsu Province from October 2014 to March 2015 is evaluated, and the possible causes of inaccuracy in the forecast of haze days are discussed. The results show that: (1) the simulated trend of PM2.5 for daily forecast of haze in WRF/CMAQ model is in good agreement with observations. The average error between the simulated and observed values of atmospheric visibility is 2 ~ 5 km. The simulated values of atmospheric visibility in coastal and coastal cities are generally larger than the observed values, and the root mean square error is higher than 10km. (2) cities with better visibility simulation (Nanjing, Zhenjiang, Changzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing, Zhenjiang, Changzhou, Suzhou), Yangzhou), the error between the observed haze day and the simulated haze day is less than 10 days. The worst simulation error in the east coastal cities of Yancheng, Nantong, Lianyungang and other cities with large peak visibility is more than 10km. The number of haze days simulated is much smaller than that of observed haze days, and the error is more than 20 days. (3) the possible causes of deviation in visibility prediction are discussed preliminarily. The low extinction coefficient of aerosol, the lower relative humidity and the larger wind speed caused by the underestimation of water soluble ions make the simulated visibility value larger.
【作者单位】： 南京信息工程大学大气环境中心;南京信息工程大学大气物理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(41575009) 江苏省产学研前瞻性项目(BY2015070-15) “江苏省高校优势学科建设工程(PAPD)项目” 长江学者和创新团队发展计划
【分类号】：X513
本文编号：2173689
[Abstract]:The simulation accuracy of WRF/CMAQ numerical model for the winter haze days in Jiangsu Province from October 2014 to March 2015 is evaluated, and the possible causes of inaccuracy in the forecast of haze days are discussed. The results show that: (1) the simulated trend of PM2.5 for daily forecast of haze in WRF/CMAQ model is in good agreement with observations. The average error between the simulated and observed values of atmospheric visibility is 2 ~ 5 km. The simulated values of atmospheric visibility in coastal and coastal cities are generally larger than the observed values, and the root mean square error is higher than 10km. (2) cities with better visibility simulation (Nanjing, Zhenjiang, Changzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing, Zhenjiang, Changzhou, Suzhou), Yangzhou), the error between the observed haze day and the simulated haze day is less than 10 days. The worst simulation error in the east coastal cities of Yancheng, Nantong, Lianyungang and other cities with large peak visibility is more than 10km. The number of haze days simulated is much smaller than that of observed haze days, and the error is more than 20 days. (3) the possible causes of deviation in visibility prediction are discussed preliminarily. The low extinction coefficient of aerosol, the lower relative humidity and the larger wind speed caused by the underestimation of water soluble ions make the simulated visibility value larger.
【作者单位】： 南京信息工程大学大气环境中心;南京信息工程大学大气物理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(41575009) 江苏省产学研前瞻性项目(BY2015070-15) “江苏省高校优势学科建设工程(PAPD)项目” 长江学者和创新团队发展计划
【分类号】：X513
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，本文编号：2173689
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