我国雾霾污染影响因素分析
发布时间：2018-08-22 19:39
【摘要】：自2012年入冬以来,雾霾污染在我国变得越来越严重。空气质量与每个人每天的生活都息息相关,没有一个人愿意在浑浊的、充满各种病菌的空气中呼吸。不管是平民百姓、媒体舆论,还是政府机构,雾霾污染都已经成为他们共同高度关注的话题。虽然我国目前还没有因雾霾污染而致人死亡的事件,但随着近期雾霾污染的加重,呼吸道疾病的发病率已经明显呈上升趋势。同时雾霾污染还降低了空气能见度,严重影响了交通运输。北京机场的多架航班由于雾霾污染而无法降落的事件再次向我们敲响了雾霾治理的警钟。为此,不得不提出以下几个问题:雾霾污染到底是怎么产生的?雾霾污染的扩散和传播过程又是怎样的?我国对雾霾污染的研究始于20世纪90年代,2013年在全国范围内开始了正式的监测研究。从国内外对雾霾污染的研究成果来看,雾霾污染除了与天气因素有关之外,最根本地还与工业污染物的排放、汽车尾气和秸秆焚烧等有很大关系。从全国的监测数据来看,我国雾霾污染整体呈现出东高西低、北高南低的分布特征。另外我国雾霾污染还呈现出区域性分布特征,在空间上呈现出聚集性。因此研究雾霾污染在区域内传播过程意义重大。从时间角度看,雾霾污染并不是当下的一个突发性事件,而是一直都存在但没有引起关注的历史问题。因此有必要研究在长期内污染物排放对雾霾污染的影响,这对治理雾霾有积极的指导意义。本文从时间和空间两个角度分别分析了雾霾污染的特征及成因。从空间角度分析了我国雾霾污染的空间聚集性及其成因和区域内雾霾的传播特征;从时间角度,本文以上海市为例分析了污染物排放及城市扩张与雾霾污染的长短期依存关系。首先运用主成分回归分析法分析了我国雾霾污染的主要影响因素,结果显示秸秆焚烧、汽车尾气、人类日常生活和煤炭、焦炭的消费都是雾霾污染的主要排放源。其次,以上述几个因素作为控制变量分别建立了空间自回归模型和空间误差模型,通过两种模型的比较得出,是模型之外的其他因素推动了雾霾向周边城市传播。因此雾霾污染的治理要靠城市间协作,走共同治理的道路。然后以递增的空间距离作为阈值建立一系列的空间权重矩阵,通过对空间误差模型的回归发现,雾霾污染的空间相关性(即传播强度)随地理距离的增加而减弱,最大的传播距离为500KM。因此相互距离在500KM之内的城市可以协作起来共同治理雾霾污染。最后以上海市为例,从时间的角度分析雾霾污染与烟尘排放和城市扩张之间的长短期依存关系。结果发现烟尘排放不管是在长期还是短期都对雾霾污染产生显著影响,而城市扩张在长期对雾霾污染存在显著影响,在短期却没有显著影响。在本文结尾处,给出了雾霾污染治理的三点政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the winter of 2012, haze pollution has become more and more serious in China. Air quality is closely related to everyone's daily life. No one wants to breathe in the muddy, germ-filled air. Haze pollution has become a common concern for ordinary people, media opinion, and government agencies. Although there have been no deaths caused by haze pollution in China, the incidence of respiratory diseases has been increasing with the aggravation of haze pollution in recent years. At the same time, haze pollution also reduces the visibility of the air, seriously affecting transportation. The fact that many flights at Beijing Airport could not land due to haze pollution once again sounded the alarm of haze's governance. Therefore, we have to put forward the following questions: how did haze pollution come into being? What is the diffusion and spread process of haze pollution? The research on haze pollution in China began in 1990's, and the formal monitoring research began in 2013 in the whole country. According to the research results of haze pollution at home and abroad, haze pollution is not only related to weather factors, but also fundamentally related to the emission of industrial pollutants, automobile exhaust gas and straw incineration. According to the national monitoring data, the distribution of haze pollution in our country is low in east high and west, north high in south and low in north. In addition, haze pollution in China also presents regional distribution and spatial aggregation. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the transmission process of haze pollution in the region. From the point of view of time, haze pollution is not a sudden event at present, but a historical problem that has always existed but has not attracted much attention. Therefore, it is necessary to study the impact of pollutant discharge on haze pollution in the long term, which has a positive guiding significance for the control of haze. In this paper, the characteristics and causes of haze pollution are analyzed from the point of view of time and space. In this paper, the spatial aggregation of haze pollution in China and its causes and the transmission characteristics of haze in the region are analyzed from the spatial point of view, and the long-term and short-term dependence of pollutant emission and urban expansion on haze pollution is analyzed in this paper, taking Shanghai as an example. The main influencing factors of haze pollution in China are analyzed by principal component regression analysis. The results show that straw burning, automobile exhaust, human daily life, coal consumption and coke consumption are the main emission sources of haze pollution. Secondly, the spatial autoregressive model and the spatial error model are established with the above-mentioned factors as control variables, and the comparison between the two models shows that it is the other factors that promote the spread of haze to the surrounding cities. Therefore, the control of haze pollution depends on the cooperation between cities and the road of common control. Then a series of spatial weight matrices are established with increasing spatial distance as threshold. By regression of spatial error model, it is found that the spatial correlation (i.e. propagation intensity) of haze pollution weakens with the increase of geographical distance. The maximum propagation distance is 500 km. Therefore, cities within 500KM can work together to control haze pollution. Finally, taking Shanghai as an example, the relationship between haze pollution and soot emission and urban expansion is analyzed from the point of view of time. The results showed that soot emission had a significant effect on haze pollution in the long term or in the short term, while urban expansion had a significant effect on haze pollution in the long run, but not in the short term. At the end of this paper, three policy suggestions on haze pollution control are given.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X513
本文编号：2198113
[Abstract]:Since the winter of 2012, haze pollution has become more and more serious in China. Air quality is closely related to everyone's daily life. No one wants to breathe in the muddy, germ-filled air. Haze pollution has become a common concern for ordinary people, media opinion, and government agencies. Although there have been no deaths caused by haze pollution in China, the incidence of respiratory diseases has been increasing with the aggravation of haze pollution in recent years. At the same time, haze pollution also reduces the visibility of the air, seriously affecting transportation. The fact that many flights at Beijing Airport could not land due to haze pollution once again sounded the alarm of haze's governance. Therefore, we have to put forward the following questions: how did haze pollution come into being? What is the diffusion and spread process of haze pollution? The research on haze pollution in China began in 1990's, and the formal monitoring research began in 2013 in the whole country. According to the research results of haze pollution at home and abroad, haze pollution is not only related to weather factors, but also fundamentally related to the emission of industrial pollutants, automobile exhaust gas and straw incineration. According to the national monitoring data, the distribution of haze pollution in our country is low in east high and west, north high in south and low in north. In addition, haze pollution in China also presents regional distribution and spatial aggregation. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the transmission process of haze pollution in the region. From the point of view of time, haze pollution is not a sudden event at present, but a historical problem that has always existed but has not attracted much attention. Therefore, it is necessary to study the impact of pollutant discharge on haze pollution in the long term, which has a positive guiding significance for the control of haze. In this paper, the characteristics and causes of haze pollution are analyzed from the point of view of time and space. In this paper, the spatial aggregation of haze pollution in China and its causes and the transmission characteristics of haze in the region are analyzed from the spatial point of view, and the long-term and short-term dependence of pollutant emission and urban expansion on haze pollution is analyzed in this paper, taking Shanghai as an example. The main influencing factors of haze pollution in China are analyzed by principal component regression analysis. The results show that straw burning, automobile exhaust, human daily life, coal consumption and coke consumption are the main emission sources of haze pollution. Secondly, the spatial autoregressive model and the spatial error model are established with the above-mentioned factors as control variables, and the comparison between the two models shows that it is the other factors that promote the spread of haze to the surrounding cities. Therefore, the control of haze pollution depends on the cooperation between cities and the road of common control. Then a series of spatial weight matrices are established with increasing spatial distance as threshold. By regression of spatial error model, it is found that the spatial correlation (i.e. propagation intensity) of haze pollution weakens with the increase of geographical distance. The maximum propagation distance is 500 km. Therefore, cities within 500KM can work together to control haze pollution. Finally, taking Shanghai as an example, the relationship between haze pollution and soot emission and urban expansion is analyzed from the point of view of time. The results showed that soot emission had a significant effect on haze pollution in the long term or in the short term, while urban expansion had a significant effect on haze pollution in the long run, but not in the short term. At the end of this paper, three policy suggestions on haze pollution control are given.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X513
【参考文献】
相关博士学位论文 前1条
1 符淼;技术溢出的空间计量和阈值回归分析[D];华中科技大学;2008年
，本文编号：2198113
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