中国区域CFC-12、HCFC-22和HFC-134a排放量反演研究
发布时间：2018-08-31 07:48
【摘要】：CFC-12、HCFC-22和HFC-134a是大气中浓度最高的CFCs、HCFCs和HFCs,同时作为制冷剂有广泛的应用。本研究采取自上而下方法,利用拉格朗日粒子扩散模式FLEXPART结合2008~2011年上甸子区域本底站CFC-12、HCFC-22和HFC-134a在线观测数据,估算了上述三物种中国区域排放量及源分布。本研究估算的2008~2011年我国CFC-12排放量分别为4.84kt/a、4.80kt/a、3.40kt/a和2.26kt/a,占全球排放比例分别为6.45%,6.95%,5.48%和4.43%;CFC-12排放主要集中于京津冀以及山东省、河南省等地区,2008年以来排放的空间分布没有明显变化。2009~2010年HCFC-22排放量分别为109.91kt/a和107.95kt/a,占全球排放比例分别为29.3%和28.3%;HCFC-22的排放主要分布于京津冀、长三角、山西省、河南省等地区。2010~2011年HFC-134a的排放量分别为13.53kt/a和17.35kt/a,占全球排放比例分别为8.35%和10.26%;HFC-134a的排放主要分布于京津冀、长三角及山东省等地区。统计分析表明,利用反演源模拟结果与观测数据的相关系数较先验源均有所提高,反演结果较先验源的均方根误差均有所下降。研究结果表明,已完全停止生产和消费的第一代损耗臭氧层物质(ODS)CFC-12排放量呈下降趋势,相应下降率与发达国家减排对应时段类似。正在冻结期的ODS过渡替代物HCFC-22排放量基本平稳。ODS替代物HFC-134a排放量呈上升趋势,增长率高于清单估算结果。应用上述方法,探讨我国HCFCs整体排放量变化。本文估算的2009~2010年中国区域HCFC-142b的排放量分别为10.82kt/a和15.42kt/a,分别占全球HCFC-142b排放量的29.7%和45.8%。结合2009~2010年HCFC-22排放量结果,表明我国HCFCs排放量呈上升趋势。不同于HCFC-22,我国HCFC-142b的排放主要分布于京津冀、四川、山东西部以及长江中下游地区。
[Abstract]:CFC-12,HCFC-22 and HFC-134a are the highest concentrations of CFCs,HCFCs and HFCs, in the atmosphere and are widely used as refrigerants. In this study, a top-down approach was adopted to estimate the emission and source distribution of the three species in China by using the Lagrange Particle Diffusion Model (FLEXPART) combined with the CFC-12,HCFC-22 and HFC-134a online observation data from 2008 to 2011 at the Shangdian background Station. The estimated CFC-12 emissions in China from 2008 to 2011 are 4.84 kt / r / a 4.80 kt / a and 2.26 kt / a, respectively, accounting for 6.45% and 6.95% and 4.43% of CFC-12 emissions respectively in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Shandong Province. In Henan Province and other regions, the spatial distribution of emissions has not changed significantly since 2009.The HCFC-22 emissions from 2009 to 2010 were 109.91kt/a and 107.95kt / a, respectively, accounting for 29.3% and 28.3kt / a of global emissions respectively. HCFC-22 emissions were mainly distributed in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Shanxi Province. From 2010 to 2011, the HFC-134a emissions of Henan and other regions were 13.53kt/a and 17.35kt / a, respectively, accounting for 8.35% and 10.26% HFC-134a of global emissions, respectively. The emissions of HFC-134a were mainly distributed in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Shandong Province. The statistical analysis shows that the correlation coefficient between the simulated results of the inversion source and the observed data is higher than that of the prior source, and the root mean square error of the inversion result is lower than that of the prior source. The results show that the (ODS) CFC-12 emissions of the first generation of ozone-depleting substances which have completely ceased production and consumption show a downward trend, and the corresponding reduction rate is similar to that of the developed countries in the corresponding period of emission reduction. The HCFC-22 emission of ODS transition substitute in freezing period is stable. The HFC-134a emission of ODS substitute is on the rise, and the growth rate is higher than the result of inventory estimation. Using the above method, the change of overall HCFCs emission in China is discussed. The estimated HCFC-142b emissions in China from 2009 to 2010 are 10.82kt/a and 15.42 kt / a, accounting for 29.7% and 45.8% of global HCFC-142b emissions, respectively. Combined with the results of HCFC-22 emissions from 2009 to 2010, the results show that the HCFCs emissions in China are on the rise. Different from HCFC-22, in China, HCFC-142b emissions are mainly distributed in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Sichuan, western Shandong and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
【学位授予单位】：中国气象科学研究院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X515
本文编号：2214353
[Abstract]:CFC-12,HCFC-22 and HFC-134a are the highest concentrations of CFCs,HCFCs and HFCs, in the atmosphere and are widely used as refrigerants. In this study, a top-down approach was adopted to estimate the emission and source distribution of the three species in China by using the Lagrange Particle Diffusion Model (FLEXPART) combined with the CFC-12,HCFC-22 and HFC-134a online observation data from 2008 to 2011 at the Shangdian background Station. The estimated CFC-12 emissions in China from 2008 to 2011 are 4.84 kt / r / a 4.80 kt / a and 2.26 kt / a, respectively, accounting for 6.45% and 6.95% and 4.43% of CFC-12 emissions respectively in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Shandong Province. In Henan Province and other regions, the spatial distribution of emissions has not changed significantly since 2009.The HCFC-22 emissions from 2009 to 2010 were 109.91kt/a and 107.95kt / a, respectively, accounting for 29.3% and 28.3kt / a of global emissions respectively. HCFC-22 emissions were mainly distributed in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Shanxi Province. From 2010 to 2011, the HFC-134a emissions of Henan and other regions were 13.53kt/a and 17.35kt / a, respectively, accounting for 8.35% and 10.26% HFC-134a of global emissions, respectively. The emissions of HFC-134a were mainly distributed in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Shandong Province. The statistical analysis shows that the correlation coefficient between the simulated results of the inversion source and the observed data is higher than that of the prior source, and the root mean square error of the inversion result is lower than that of the prior source. The results show that the (ODS) CFC-12 emissions of the first generation of ozone-depleting substances which have completely ceased production and consumption show a downward trend, and the corresponding reduction rate is similar to that of the developed countries in the corresponding period of emission reduction. The HCFC-22 emission of ODS transition substitute in freezing period is stable. The HFC-134a emission of ODS substitute is on the rise, and the growth rate is higher than the result of inventory estimation. Using the above method, the change of overall HCFCs emission in China is discussed. The estimated HCFC-142b emissions in China from 2009 to 2010 are 10.82kt/a and 15.42 kt / a, accounting for 29.7% and 45.8% of global HCFC-142b emissions, respectively. Combined with the results of HCFC-22 emissions from 2009 to 2010, the results show that the HCFCs emissions in China are on the rise. Different from HCFC-22, in China, HCFC-142b emissions are mainly distributed in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Sichuan, western Shandong and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
【学位授予单位】：中国气象科学研究院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X515
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