2013—2014年江门CMAQ的预报检验

发布时间：2018-10-10 06:23

【摘要】：基于CMAQ空气质量模式的报文资料和江门环境监测站资料,对2013年12月至2014年2月份CMAQ空气质量模式在江门市的应用进行了效果检验,分析了AQI和SO_2、NO_2、PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)等要素的预报值与实际观测值之间的误差和预报效果,结果表明:模式对AQI 24、48和72 h时效的预报值都比实测值偏高、预报时效越长、偏离越大;离散程度越高,可靠性也越差。整个冬季AQI 24 h时效预报值与实测值相关系数高达0.72,模式能够准确把握AQI的变化特征,48和72 h时效相应的相关系数分别为0.55和0.4。模式对SO_2、PM_(10)、O_3和PM_(2.5)的预报容易偏高,对NO_2和CO的预报容易偏低。6种要素预报效果较好的是PM_(2.5)和PM_(10);预报效果最差的是CO,无论是平均偏差、离散程度、相关系数和可靠性等,明显低于其它要素。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of CMAQ air quality model and Jiangmen environmental monitoring station, the application of CMAQ air quality model in Jiangmen City from December 2013 to February 2014 was tested. The error and effect between the predicted values of AQI and SO_2,NO_2,PM_ (10) / PM2.5 and the observed values are analyzed. The results show that the predicted values of the model for AQI 24048 and 72 h are both higher than the observed values, and the longer the prediction time is, the greater the deviation is, and the higher the dispersion degree is. The worse the reliability. The correlation coefficient between the 24 h time-lapse prediction value of AQI and the measured value is as high as 0.72 in winter. The correlation coefficients of the model can accurately grasp the variation characteristics of AQI and the corresponding correlation coefficients of 48 h and 72 h aging are 0.55 and 0.4 respectively. The prediction of SO_2,PM_ (10) / O\ + _ (3) and PM_ (2. 5) by the model is easy to be higher than that of NO_2 and CO, and that of PM_ (2. 5) and PM_ (10) is better than that of NO_2 and CO. The worst forecasting effect is the average deviation, the degree of dispersion, the correlation coefficient and the reliability of CO, etc. Significantly lower than the other elements.
【作者单位】：江门市气象局;珠海市气象局;
【基金】：江门市气象局项目(201402)
【分类号】：X51

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