银川市再生水回用SD模型的构建
发布时间：2018-10-18 06:30
【摘要】：随着宁夏银川市社会经济的快速发展,城市供水量越来越不能满足于城市生活、工业、市政、生态、农业及环境需水的要求。本文正是基于银川市水资源短缺的现状,结合国家自然基金项目《基于健康水系统的宁夏银川市污水再生利用系统的构建与优化》,以国内外现有的研究成果及实例为基础,通过问卷调查,分析了银川市公众对水资源及再生水利用的认知以及接受程度并分析原因；在银川市再生水利用系统组成分析的基础上,构建了银川市再生水回用系统动力学模型,以预测再生水的发展与城市经济、生态、环境等的关系。为城市再生水的发展及利用提供参考依据。首先通过问卷调查的方式分析银川市公众对再生水的接受程度,探讨公众接受程度对再生水利用系统模型的影响,调查结果表明：银川市再生水利用的公众接受程度不高,一定程度上限制了再生水利用的发展,尤其是目前银川市的经济发展对居民收入的影响及居民对再生水的了解程度不够使得居民对再生水利用存在疑虑,尤其是水质方面和价格方面,不愿意多花钱利用水质相对不安全的再生水。其次,本文运用系统论的方法研究再生水回用系统的构成,主要有再生水供给子系统和再生水需求子系统；再通过分析各子系统中的相关因素,并确定因素之间的函数关系,为构建再生水回用系统模型奠定基础；运用vensim ple软件建立银川市再生水回用系统动力学模型,以模型中的重要变量之间的因果关系及主要反馈回路分析模型的结构和特点,并通过赋于模型初始值对模型做历史性检验确定模型运行良好；最后根据银川市的总体规划提出方案,以2020年为水平年,通过改变决策变量污水回用年增长率为10%和二级处理年增长率3.6%进行模拟预测,方案预测结果为：到2020年银川市GDP为1500.85亿元,工业产值为4591.88亿元,再生水回用量为9334.92万m3。利用再生水后,银川市的缺水状况将得到有效缓解,同时节约了地下水及黄河水资源,促进了银川市经济发展,进一步缓减了生态环境的质量等问题。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of social economy in Yinchuan City of Ningxia, the water supply of the city is more and more unable to meet the requirements of urban life, industry, municipal, ecology, agriculture and environment. This paper is based on the current situation of water resources shortage in Yinchuan City, combined with the National Natural Fund Project "Construction and Optimization of Wastewater Recycling and Utilization system in Yinchuan City, Ningxia based on healthy Water system", which is based on the existing research results and examples at home and abroad. Based on the questionnaire survey, this paper analyzes the public's cognition and acceptance of water resources and reclaimed water utilization in Yinchuan City, and analyzes the reasons for the acceptance, and analyzes the composition of the reclaimed water utilization system in Yinchuan City. In order to predict the relationship between the development of reclaimed water and urban economy, ecology and environment, the dynamic model of reclaimed water reuse system in Yinchuan City was constructed. It provides reference for the development and utilization of urban reclaimed water. Firstly, the paper analyzes the public acceptance degree of recycled water in Yinchuan city by questionnaire, and discusses the influence of public acceptance degree on the model of reclaimed water utilization system. The results show that the public acceptance degree of reclaimed water utilization in Yinchuan city is not high. To some extent, it restricts the development of reclaimed water utilization, especially the influence of economic development on residents' income and residents' understanding of reclaimed water, which makes residents have doubts about the utilization of recycled water. In particular, water quality and price, not willing to spend more money to use the relatively unsafe water quality. Secondly, this paper uses the method of system theory to study the composition of the reclaimed water reuse system, mainly including the reclaimed water supply subsystem and the reclaimed water demand subsystem, and then through the analysis of the relevant factors in each subsystem, and determines the functional relationship among the factors. The dynamic model of reclaimed water reuse system in Yinchuan city is established by using vensim ple software, and the structure and characteristics of the model are analyzed based on the causality between the important variables in the model and the main feedback loop analysis model. Finally, according to the overall plan of Yinchuan City, the paper puts forward a plan, taking 2020 as the horizontal year, and makes a historical test of the model by assigning the initial value of the model to the model. The annual growth rate of wastewater reuse is 10% and the annual growth rate of secondary treatment is 3.6% by changing the decision variable. The forecast result is: the GDP of Yinchuan City is 150.085 billion yuan by 2020, the industrial output value is 459.188 billion yuan, and the amount of reclaimed water is 93.3492 million m3. The water shortage in Yinchuan City will be effectively alleviated, groundwater and Yellow River water resources will be saved, the economic development of Yinchuan City will be promoted, and the quality of ecological environment will be further alleviated.
【学位授予单位】：宁夏大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X703
本文编号：2278284
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of social economy in Yinchuan City of Ningxia, the water supply of the city is more and more unable to meet the requirements of urban life, industry, municipal, ecology, agriculture and environment. This paper is based on the current situation of water resources shortage in Yinchuan City, combined with the National Natural Fund Project "Construction and Optimization of Wastewater Recycling and Utilization system in Yinchuan City, Ningxia based on healthy Water system", which is based on the existing research results and examples at home and abroad. Based on the questionnaire survey, this paper analyzes the public's cognition and acceptance of water resources and reclaimed water utilization in Yinchuan City, and analyzes the reasons for the acceptance, and analyzes the composition of the reclaimed water utilization system in Yinchuan City. In order to predict the relationship between the development of reclaimed water and urban economy, ecology and environment, the dynamic model of reclaimed water reuse system in Yinchuan City was constructed. It provides reference for the development and utilization of urban reclaimed water. Firstly, the paper analyzes the public acceptance degree of recycled water in Yinchuan city by questionnaire, and discusses the influence of public acceptance degree on the model of reclaimed water utilization system. The results show that the public acceptance degree of reclaimed water utilization in Yinchuan city is not high. To some extent, it restricts the development of reclaimed water utilization, especially the influence of economic development on residents' income and residents' understanding of reclaimed water, which makes residents have doubts about the utilization of recycled water. In particular, water quality and price, not willing to spend more money to use the relatively unsafe water quality. Secondly, this paper uses the method of system theory to study the composition of the reclaimed water reuse system, mainly including the reclaimed water supply subsystem and the reclaimed water demand subsystem, and then through the analysis of the relevant factors in each subsystem, and determines the functional relationship among the factors. The dynamic model of reclaimed water reuse system in Yinchuan city is established by using vensim ple software, and the structure and characteristics of the model are analyzed based on the causality between the important variables in the model and the main feedback loop analysis model. Finally, according to the overall plan of Yinchuan City, the paper puts forward a plan, taking 2020 as the horizontal year, and makes a historical test of the model by assigning the initial value of the model to the model. The annual growth rate of wastewater reuse is 10% and the annual growth rate of secondary treatment is 3.6% by changing the decision variable. The forecast result is: the GDP of Yinchuan City is 150.085 billion yuan by 2020, the industrial output value is 459.188 billion yuan, and the amount of reclaimed water is 93.3492 million m3. The water shortage in Yinchuan City will be effectively alleviated, groundwater and Yellow River water resources will be saved, the economic development of Yinchuan City will be promoted, and the quality of ecological environment will be further alleviated.
【学位授予单位】：宁夏大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X703
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