流域水污染动态最优控制研究

发布时间：2018-10-30 08:08

【摘要】：本文运用最优控制理论,研究了当存在上游和下游两个流域,且流域中存在两种污染物时厂商成本最小化的决策问题。无论上游还是下游,两种污染物的减污成本之间存在替代或互补效应,污染物对环境造成的危害与其在环境中的存量有关。厂商需考虑治污成本和存污成本,前者表示厂商治理污染物而产生的成本,后者表示由于厂商未处理完污染物而受到政府或监管机构征收的环境税。首先考虑只有单一污染物,但存在上游和下游两个流域的决策情况;上游流域会将一部分污染物排放到下游流域,两个流域之间可以相互独立决策,也可以协同决策。相互独立决策意味着彼此不考虑对方的利益,而协同决策意味着他们将双方成本的总和最小化作为目标。我们发现相比于上、下游独立决策,协同决策在稳定状态时上游污染物的排放速度更小,相应的污染物存量也更小;且从长久来看,相比于独立决策,上下游流域的厂商在协同决策时所需要付出的总成本更小。其次,我们建立了当同一流域存在两种污染物,且两种污染物之间存在互补和替代效应的时候,作为厂商的最优控制决策模型。发现若两种污染物的减排成本相同且污染物消耗速度相同时,那么稳定状态下对环境危害更小的污染物的排放量(或存量)会随着替代效应的增加而增加;同时对监管机构如何运用本文的模型来解决现实当中的问题做出了探索。最后,结合上述两种情况,建立了考虑上、下游两个流域同时存在两种污染物,且两种污染物之间在上下游均存在互补和替代效应的时候,作为厂商的最优控制决策模型。发现了如果考虑两种污染物之间存在替代或互补效应,那么协同决策在稳定状态时上游污染物的排放量是否会比独立决策时更小,会很大程度上取决于两种污染物之间的关系(互补或替代效应);还发现了污染物在上游的替代或互补效应不仅会影响到上游的决策,还会影响到下游的决策。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the optimal control theory is used to study the decision problem of minimizing the manufacturer's cost when there are two kinds of pollutants in the upstream and downstream basins and there are two kinds of pollutants in the basin. Whether upstream or downstream, there is a substitution or complementary effect between the pollution reduction costs of the two pollutants, and the harm caused by pollutants to the environment is related to their stock in the environment. Manufacturers need to consider pollution control costs, which represent costs incurred by manufacturers in treating pollutants, and environmental taxes imposed by governments or regulators for failing to deal with pollutants, he said. Firstly, only a single pollutant exists in the upstream and downstream basins, and some pollutants are discharged to the lower reaches, which can be decided independently or synergistically between the two basins. Independent decision means that each other does not consider each other's interests, while cooperative decision means that they aim to minimize the sum of costs. Compared with upstream and downstream independent decision making, we find that the emission rate of upstream pollutants is smaller and the corresponding pollutant stock is smaller when the coordinated decision is in a stable state. And in the long run, compared with independent decision, upstream and downstream basin manufacturers need to pay less total cost in collaborative decision-making. Secondly, when there are two kinds of pollutants in the same basin, and there are complementary and substitution effects between the two pollutants, the optimal control decision model of the manufacturer is established. It is found that if the cost of emission reduction of two pollutants is the same and the consumption rate of pollutants is the same, the emissions (or stocks) of pollutants with less harm to the environment will increase with the increase of substitution effect. At the same time, it explores how to use the model to solve the problems in reality. Finally, considering the above two conditions, the optimal control decision model of the manufacturer is established when there are two kinds of pollutants in the upstream and downstream basins, and there are complementary and substitution effects between the two kinds of pollutants in the upper and lower reaches. It has been found that if the substitution or complementarity between the two pollutants is considered, then whether the emissions of upstream pollutants in a stable state would be smaller in cooperative decision-making than in the case of independent decision-making, Will depend to a large extent on the relationship between the two pollutants (complementary or substitution effects); It is also found that the substitution or complementary effect of pollutants in the upstream will not only affect the upstream decision, but also the downstream decision.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X52

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