基于CMAQ模型的城市大气VOCs总量测算与控制对策
发布时间：2018-11-01 10:34
【摘要】：本文以济南市为研究区域,选定2012年为基准年,通过对济南市金属冶炼、有机玻璃、表面喷涂、钢铁生产等行业和机动车的VOCs排放因子的调查,建立了济南市重点污染源VOCs排放清单,运用本地化WRF和多尺度空气质量模型CMAQ,结合济南市2020年大气污染防治行动计划中PM2.5控制目标,测算了济南市VOCs总量,并运用Hysplit后向轨迹模型探讨了济南市大气中VOCs迁移转化规律,提出了济南市大气VOCs控制对策。本次研究采用了第三代空气质量模式系统Models-3/CMAQ。模式系统采用三重网格嵌套,中心点为N36.40和E117.0°,三重网格距分别为36公里、12公里和4公里。通过模拟得出以下结论：(1)通过对济南市机动车年检线汽油车检测数据统计和手工采集的柴油车污染物的分析,得出济南市机动车排放因子分别为：VOCs为0.28 g/Km, CO为4.63 g/Km,NOx为0.82 g/Km,再根据济南市路边车流量信息和济南市汽车保有量,得到济南市机动车尾气VOCs年排放量为1.18万吨。根据钢铁行业/铸造行业和表面喷涂行业采样分析,得出钢铁行业/铸造行业VOCs年排放量为2.89万吨,表面喷涂行业VOCs年排放量为1.28万吨。根据类比相似地区的炼油厂和加油站加注的VOCs排放因子,得出济南市石油炼化行业VOCs年排放量为1.52万吨,加油站加注VOCs年排放量为0.05万吨。同时建立了济南市火力发电、金属冶炼等支柱行业SO2、NOx、烟粉尘的排放清单,济南市2012年工业点源颗粒物排放量为398.1万吨、S02排放量为21.42万吨、NOx排放量为10.1万吨。无组织排放的VOCs年排放量为4.75万吨,颗粒物年排放量为5.1609万吨。(2)通过对比CMAQ模型预测获得的PM2.5浓度与同期济南市PM2.5在线检测浓度数据,浓度偏差均小于35%,说明构建的本地化CMAQ模型基本可信。以2012年排放源清单为基准年,结合济南市大气污染防治计划中2020年SO2、NOx、工业烟粉尘、VOCs控制目标,经CMAQ模型预测,在保证PM2.5达到控制目标前提下,济南市2020年VOCs的排放量控制在2.98万吨以内,与基准年VOCs,总量相比,2020年VOCs的削减率为37%。(3)利用Hysplit反向轨迹模型对采样期间气团的反向轨迹进行分析,每24h计算一条轨迹,反演时间为168h,高度500m、1000m、1500m,经聚类分析得出：济南市2、9、12月均以西北气团为主,冷空气携带浓度较高的颗粒物侵入济南,容易形成逆温,出现比较严重的雾霾现象。济南市5月500m高空以东南气团为主,所占比例为90%左右。1000m、1500m高空以西北气团为主,所占比例为60%左右。济南市气压、风速和能见度均与VOCs变化具有一定的相关性,与Hysplit后向轨迹模型模拟的结果基本一致。(4)提出了济南市VOCs,总量控制措施,主要包括：迅速开展全市VOCs的溯源工程、开展全市VOCs总量控制工程。制定针对济南市VOCs的地方性排放标准、用空气质量达标限制VOCs的排放总量。研发先进的VOCs预防控制技术。加强对企业无组织排放的管控能力、相关政府部门明确责任、各司其职、统一规划等措施来改善VOCs的污染现状。
[Abstract]:Based on Jinan as the research area, in 2012 as the benchmark year, the VOCs emission list of key pollution sources in Jinan was established by investigating the emission factors of VOCs in industrial and motor vehicles such as metal smelting, organic glass, surface spraying, steel production and so on in Jinan. Based on the localization of WRF and multi-scale air quality model CMAQ, combined with PM2.5 control target in the air pollution control plan of Jinan in 2020, the total amount of VOCs in Jinan was calculated, and the transformation law of VOCs in Jinan atmosphere was discussed by using Hysplit backward trajectory model. The control strategy of atmospheric VOCs in Jinan is put forward. The third generation air quality model system Models-3/ CMAQ is used in this study. The mode system is nested with triple grid, the center point is N36. 40 and E117. 0 掳, the triple grid spacing is 36 km, 12 km and 4 km respectively. By means of simulation, the following conclusions are obtained: (1) The emission factors of motor vehicles in Jinan are as follows: VOCs are 0.28g/ Km, CO is 4.63g/ Km and NOx is 0.082 g/ Km. According to the road traffic information of Jinan and the car ownership of Jinan, the annual emission amount of VOCs of motor vehicles in Jinan is 1. 18 million tons. According to the sampling and analysis of steel industry/ foundry industry and surface spray industry, the annual emission of VOCs in steel industry/ foundry industry was 2.89 million tons, and the annual emission of VOCs in surface spraying industry was 1.28,000 tons. According to the VCs emission factors injected from oil refinery and gas station in similar regions, the annual emission amount of VOCs in petroleum refining industry in Jinan is 1. 52 million tons, and the annual emission amount of VOCs in gas station is 0. 05 million tons. At the same time, the emission list of SO2, NOx and smoke dust in coal industry such as Jinan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., metal smelting, etc. is established, and the emission amount of industrial point source particles in Jinan in 2012 is 398.8 million tons, and the emission amount of S02 is 21.42 million tons, and the NOx emission amount is 10,000 tons. The annual emission amount of VOCs emitted by non-organization is 47.5 million tons, and the annual discharge amount of particulate matter is 5.1609 million tons. (2) The concentration deviation is less than 35% by comparing the PM2.5 concentration obtained by the CMAQ model and the PM2.5 on-line detection concentration data in Jinan in the same period, indicating that the constructed localization CMIAQ model is basically credible. Based on the emission source list in 2012, combined with the control target of SO2, NOx, industrial smoke dust and VOCs in 2020 in Jinan Air Pollution Control Plan, the emission amount of VOCs in Jinan will be controlled within 2.98 million tons under the precondition of guaranteeing PM2.5 to reach the control objective. The reduction rate of VOCs in 2020 was 37% in 2020 compared with the baseline year VOCs. (3) The reverse trajectory of gas mass during sampling is analyzed by using the Hysplit reverse trajectory model. One track is calculated every 24h, the inversion time is 168h, and the height is 500m, 1000m and 1500m. The cluster analysis shows that Jinan's 2, 9 and 12 months are dominated by Northwest Air Corps. The cold air carries the high concentration of particulate matter into Jinan, it is easy to form the reverse temperature, and there is a serious haze phenomenon. In Jinan, 500m high altitude is dominated by southeast air mass, accounting for about 90%. The proportion is about 60% in the high altitude of 1000m and 1500m. The air pressure, wind speed and visibility of Jinan have a certain correlation with the variation of VOCs, and the results are basically consistent with the results of the model after Hysplit. (4) The control measures of VOCs and total quantity in Jinan are put forward, mainly including: carrying out the source tracing project of the city's VOCs in the city, and carrying out the control project of the total volume of VOCs in the city. Develop local emission standards for VOCs in Jinan and limit the total emission of VOCs by air quality standards. Research and development of advanced VOCs prevention and control technology. To strengthen the management and control ability of non-organization emission of enterprises, the relevant government departments have clear responsibility, each division has its functions, unified planning and other measures to improve the pollution status of VOCs.
【学位授予单位】：山东建筑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X511
本文编号：2303645
[Abstract]:Based on Jinan as the research area, in 2012 as the benchmark year, the VOCs emission list of key pollution sources in Jinan was established by investigating the emission factors of VOCs in industrial and motor vehicles such as metal smelting, organic glass, surface spraying, steel production and so on in Jinan. Based on the localization of WRF and multi-scale air quality model CMAQ, combined with PM2.5 control target in the air pollution control plan of Jinan in 2020, the total amount of VOCs in Jinan was calculated, and the transformation law of VOCs in Jinan atmosphere was discussed by using Hysplit backward trajectory model. The control strategy of atmospheric VOCs in Jinan is put forward. The third generation air quality model system Models-3/ CMAQ is used in this study. The mode system is nested with triple grid, the center point is N36. 40 and E117. 0 掳, the triple grid spacing is 36 km, 12 km and 4 km respectively. By means of simulation, the following conclusions are obtained: (1) The emission factors of motor vehicles in Jinan are as follows: VOCs are 0.28g/ Km, CO is 4.63g/ Km and NOx is 0.082 g/ Km. According to the road traffic information of Jinan and the car ownership of Jinan, the annual emission amount of VOCs of motor vehicles in Jinan is 1. 18 million tons. According to the sampling and analysis of steel industry/ foundry industry and surface spray industry, the annual emission of VOCs in steel industry/ foundry industry was 2.89 million tons, and the annual emission of VOCs in surface spraying industry was 1.28,000 tons. According to the VCs emission factors injected from oil refinery and gas station in similar regions, the annual emission amount of VOCs in petroleum refining industry in Jinan is 1. 52 million tons, and the annual emission amount of VOCs in gas station is 0. 05 million tons. At the same time, the emission list of SO2, NOx and smoke dust in coal industry such as Jinan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., metal smelting, etc. is established, and the emission amount of industrial point source particles in Jinan in 2012 is 398.8 million tons, and the emission amount of S02 is 21.42 million tons, and the NOx emission amount is 10,000 tons. The annual emission amount of VOCs emitted by non-organization is 47.5 million tons, and the annual discharge amount of particulate matter is 5.1609 million tons. (2) The concentration deviation is less than 35% by comparing the PM2.5 concentration obtained by the CMAQ model and the PM2.5 on-line detection concentration data in Jinan in the same period, indicating that the constructed localization CMIAQ model is basically credible. Based on the emission source list in 2012, combined with the control target of SO2, NOx, industrial smoke dust and VOCs in 2020 in Jinan Air Pollution Control Plan, the emission amount of VOCs in Jinan will be controlled within 2.98 million tons under the precondition of guaranteeing PM2.5 to reach the control objective. The reduction rate of VOCs in 2020 was 37% in 2020 compared with the baseline year VOCs. (3) The reverse trajectory of gas mass during sampling is analyzed by using the Hysplit reverse trajectory model. One track is calculated every 24h, the inversion time is 168h, and the height is 500m, 1000m and 1500m. The cluster analysis shows that Jinan's 2, 9 and 12 months are dominated by Northwest Air Corps. The cold air carries the high concentration of particulate matter into Jinan, it is easy to form the reverse temperature, and there is a serious haze phenomenon. In Jinan, 500m high altitude is dominated by southeast air mass, accounting for about 90%. The proportion is about 60% in the high altitude of 1000m and 1500m. The air pressure, wind speed and visibility of Jinan have a certain correlation with the variation of VOCs, and the results are basically consistent with the results of the model after Hysplit. (4) The control measures of VOCs and total quantity in Jinan are put forward, mainly including: carrying out the source tracing project of the city's VOCs in the city, and carrying out the control project of the total volume of VOCs in the city. Develop local emission standards for VOCs in Jinan and limit the total emission of VOCs by air quality standards. Research and development of advanced VOCs prevention and control technology. To strengthen the management and control ability of non-organization emission of enterprises, the relevant government departments have clear responsibility, each division has its functions, unified planning and other measures to improve the pollution status of VOCs.
【学位授予单位】：山东建筑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X511
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