污染物总量控制对广东省社会经济影响分析

发布时间：2018-11-23 06:56

【摘要】：文章构建了广东省2007年环境经济投入产出表,利用一组环境经济投入产出模型定量预测和分析了"十二五"污染物总量控制措施对广东省社会经济的影响程度。模拟结果显示:新增污染治理设施投资对社会总产值、增加值、劳动报酬和利税的影响是正面的,各指标都有不同程度的增值,分别是640.82、178.46、19.87、8.75亿元;新增运行费的影响有所分化,社会总产出是增加的,增值为337.40亿元,但增加值、劳动报酬和利税是减少的,分别减少38.71、5.16、1.21亿元;淘汰落后产能对社会经济总量将产生负面的影响,各指标分别减少416.47、111.28、9.98、6.09亿元。治污成本的增加对各部门的价格有一定的影响,但增幅有限,在0.16%~2.05%之间。淘汰落后产能使得第一产业增加0.02%,工业部门的比重降低0.12%,第三产业增加0.9%,新增污染设施投资和运行费对产业结构的优化没有促进作用,但提高了污染治理能力,有较好的环境效益。
[Abstract]:This paper constructs the environmental and economic input-output table of Guangdong Province in 2007, and quantitatively predicts and analyzes the influence of the total amount control measures of pollutants in the 12th Five-Year Plan on the social economy of Guangdong Province by using a group of environmental economic input-output models. The simulation results show that the impact of the new investment in pollution control facilities on the total social output value, added value, labor remuneration and interest tax is positive, and each index has varying degrees of value-added, which are 640.82178.46 or 19.877,875 million yuan; The effect of the new operation cost is divided, the total output of the society is increased, the increment is 33.74 billion yuan, but the added value, the labor reward and the profit and tax are reduced, by 38.71% 5.16, 121 million yuan respectively; Elimination of backward production capacity will have a negative impact on the total social and economic output, each index will be reduced by 416.47111.289.98, 609 million yuan respectively. The increase of pollution control cost has a certain effect on the price of various departments, but the increase is limited, ranging from 0.16% to 2.05%. The elimination of backward production capacity has increased the primary industry by 0.02 percent, the proportion of the industrial sector has decreased by 0.12, the tertiary industry has increased by 0.9 percent, and the new pollution facilities investment and operating costs have not promoted the optimization of the industrial structure. But improved the pollution control ability, has the good environmental benefit.
【作者单位】：中山大学环境科学与工程学院;
【基金】：广东省厅局级项目:广东省海洋生态文明示范区建设标准(粤海渔函[2013]855号)
【分类号】：X2;X321

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