富氧燃烧CCS项目的风险评价

发布时间：2018-12-17 01:36

【摘要】：针对日益严重的温室效应,世界各国都开始走上二氧化碳减排的道路。富氧燃烧CCS是一项新兴的二氧化碳减排技术,此项技术可以有效降低大气中的二氧化碳量,同时保证现有化石燃料使用力度不受影响。由于我国仍然是以化石燃料为主的能源结构,并且承担了大量的二氧化碳减排任务,因此我国大力发展富氧燃烧CCS技术显得格外重要。然而,当前富氧燃烧CCS技术在全球范围内仍处于示范阶段,富氧燃烧CCS项目的广泛应用将无法避免大量的风险。本文旨在以富氧燃烧CCS项目作为研究对象,对项目的风险进行详细的分析和评价。本文在文献分析的基础上,探究了富氧燃烧CCS项目的行动者网络,进而完成了对富氧燃烧CCS项目的风险识别。识别出来自技术、社会、经济、环境4个领域的18项风险因素,从而构建出富氧燃烧CCS项目风险的评价体系,并且进一步对识别出的各项风险因素进行了详细的分析。其中,对经济风险做了进一步对比计算。本文对基于三角模糊数的模糊网络分析法进行了详细的介绍,并将其应用到富氧燃烧CCS项目的风险评价中。研究发现,经济风险、社会风险的权重值排在前两位,而环境风险的权重最低。本文得出富氧燃烧CCS项目的综合风险水平为0.373,对比其他项目风险和一般风险分类认为富氧燃烧CCS项目风险属于中等水平,应该在大力发展的同时重视项目的各方面风险,采取有效的应对措施。
[Abstract]:In response to the increasingly serious Greenhouse Effect, countries around the world began to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Oxygen-enriched combustion (CCS) is a new technology for reducing carbon dioxide emissions, which can effectively reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere while ensuring that existing fossil fuel use is not affected. Since China is still a fossil fuel based energy structure, and has undertaken a large number of carbon dioxide emission reduction tasks, it is particularly important to develop oxygen-enriched combustion CCS technology in China. However, at present, the CCS technology of oxygen-enriched combustion is still in the demonstration stage all over the world, and the extensive application of the oxygen-enriched combustion CCS project will not avoid a large number of risks. The purpose of this paper is to analyze and evaluate the risk of oxygen-enriched combustion CCS project in detail. On the basis of literature analysis, this paper explores the network of actors in oxygen-enriched combustion CCS project, and then completes the risk identification of oxygen-enriched combustion CCS project. By identifying 18 risk factors from technology, society, economy and environment, the risk evaluation system of oxygen-enriched combustion CCS project is constructed, and the identified risk factors are analyzed in detail. Among them, the economic risk is further compared and calculated. In this paper, the fuzzy network analysis method based on triangular fuzzy number is introduced in detail, and it is applied to the risk evaluation of oxygen-enriched combustion CCS project. It is found that the weight of economic risk and social risk is the first two, while the weight of environmental risk is the lowest. This paper concludes that the comprehensive risk level of oxygen-enriched combustion CCS project is 0.373.Compared with other project risk and general risk classification, it is considered that oxygen-enriched combustion CCS project risk belongs to medium level, so we should pay attention to all aspects of project risk while developing vigorously. Take effective countermeasures.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X701;X820.4

【相似文献】