面向水质安全预警的流域产业化和城镇化压力源评估方法

发布时间：2019-01-05 20:06

【摘要】：为适应水环境风险管理中对压力源的快速评判需求,构建了流域产业化、城镇化压力源评估方法,并开展其应用研究.从压力源危险性及受体易损性着眼,提出了压力源结构风险和布局风险双重控制思路;围绕警示性评估的定位,针对单项及综合风险分析,阐明了评估指标选取、风险指数计算和预警级别划分等步骤,并以三峡库区为案例进行了评估.结果显示,三峡库区产业化、城镇化压力源综合评估Ⅰ级(重警)区主要集中在重庆市主城区附近的8个区县,其结构风险指数值(0.375 6~0.624 6)和布局风险指数值(0.598 7~0.967 8)均较高;Ⅱ级(中警)区域包括江北区、北碚区、巴南区、大渡口区和巫山县,呈现布局风险指数值(0.820 7~1.000 0)较高、结构风险指数值(0.258 4~0.355 5)相对低的特征;Ⅲ级(轻警)区域包括渝东南和渝东北的5个区县和渝中区.其中,渝中区结构风险指数值(0.135 6)小,但因其布局风险指数值(0.960 7)较大而使得综合评估结果为轻警状态.
[Abstract]:In order to meet the requirement of rapid assessment of pressure sources in water environment risk management, a method for evaluating pressure sources of watershed industrialization and urbanization was constructed and its application was studied. Based on the risk of pressure source and the vulnerability of pressure source, the dual control thought of structural risk and layout risk of pressure source is put forward. Focusing on the orientation of warning assessment, the selection of evaluation index, the calculation of risk index and the classification of warning level are expounded for the single and comprehensive risk analysis. The evaluation is carried out with the three Gorges Reservoir area as a case study. The results show that the industrialization of the three Gorges Reservoir area and the comprehensive assessment of the pressure sources of urbanization I (heavy warning) area are mainly concentrated in 8 districts and counties near the main urban area of Chongqing. The structural risk index (0.375) and the layout risk index (0.598 7 ~ 0.967 8) were higher. The second grade (Central Police) area includes Jiangbei District, Beibei District, Bannan District, Dadukou District and Wushan County. The distribution risk index value (0.820 70.000 0) is higher, and the structural risk index value (0.258 40.355 5) is relatively low. Grade 鈪，

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