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城市群低碳减排不确定优化模型研究

发布时间:2019-01-21 08:46
【摘要】:本研究立足于国家《“十二五”控制温室气体排放工作方案》,选取长株潭城市群为案例研究区域,选取工业产值增加值、单位GDP能耗、资金、行业碳排放量、城市碳汇面积等作为约束条件,以规划期内城市群净碳减排量最小为优化目标,建立了基于机会约束规划(Chance Constrained Programming, CCP)方法的城市群低碳减排优化模型,在考虑决策空间的基础上,进而建立了基于区间-机会约束规划(Interval Chance Constrained Programming, ICCP)的城市群低碳减排优化模型。此外,为了降低决策风险,将城市群温室气体减排效益最大化,进一步建立基于两阶段随机规划(Two-stage Stochastic Programming, TSP)的城市群低碳减排优化模型,以实现同时满足温室气体减排规划和城市群温室气体减排费用最小。基于CCP模型获得的结果显示,在不同可碳汇土地面积的三种违约概率水平0.01、0.05、0.1下,长株潭城市群区域碳排放总量规划值分别为3133.77万吨、3108.71万吨和3088.79万吨,与原有方案4081.54万吨碳排放总量相比,分别下降了23.22%、23.83%和24.32%。基于ICCP的城市群低碳减排模型优化结果显示,在不同可碳汇土地面积的三种违约概率水平0.01、0.05、0.1下,长株潭城市群碳排放总量的规划值分别为[3096.21,3171.32]万吨、[3071.74,3145.67]万吨、[3050.96,3126.61]万吨,与原有方案相比,分别下降了[22.30,24.14]%、[22.92,24.74]%、[23.39,25.24]%。此外,建立的基于TSP的城市群低碳减排优化模型优化结果显示,在低、中、高三个概率水平下获得的温室气体减排费用分别为92685万元,87039万元和80662万元,与第一阶段决策方案规划期118241万元温室气体减排费用相比,基于TSP方法的城市群碳减排模型的优化方案在概率水平0.01、0.05、0.1下分别将碳减排成本降低了21.63%、26.38%和31.78%。另一方面,基于TSP的城市群低碳减排优化模型获得的决策方案不仅满足国家《“十二五”控制温室气体排放工作方案》和《湖南省“十二五”环长株潭城市群发展规划》中对长株潭城市群区域的相关约束性指标的要求,而且可以对规划区域内可碳汇土地面积进行规划,合理控制碳汇面积,实现有效减少城市碳排放总量,充分开发未利用土地,制约城市化过快发展、土地浪费等问题,合理有效地利用了土地资源,达到最优的经济目标。
[Abstract]:This study is based on the national "12th Five-Year Plan" to control greenhouse gas emissions, selected Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration as a case study area, selected the added value of industrial output value, unit GDP energy consumption, capital, industry carbon emissions, Taking the minimum of net carbon emission reduction in urban agglomeration as the optimization objective, a low carbon emission reduction optimization model of urban agglomeration based on opportunity constrained programming (Chance Constrained Programming, CCP) method is established. On the basis of considering the decision space, a low carbon emission reduction optimization model of urban agglomeration based on interval-opportunity constrained programming (Interval Chance Constrained Programming, ICCP) is established. In addition, in order to reduce the risk of decision-making and maximize the benefits of greenhouse gas emission reduction in urban agglomeration, a two-stage stochastic programming (Two-stage Stochastic Programming, TSP) based optimization model for urban agglomeration low carbon emission reduction is further established. In order to meet the greenhouse gas emission reduction planning and urban agglomeration greenhouse gas emission reduction costs minimum. The results based on CCP model show that the total carbon emission planning value of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration region is 31.3377 million tons under the three kinds of default probability level of different carbon sequestration land area. Compared with the original scheme, the total carbon emissions of 31.0871 million tons and 30.8879 million tons decreased by 23.22% and 24.32%, respectively. The optimization results of low carbon emission reduction model of urban agglomeration based on ICCP show that the total carbon emission planning value of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration is [3096.21 / 3171.32] tons under the three probability levels of default probability of different carbon sequestration land area. [3071.74kW 3145.67] million tons, and [3050.96m / 3126.61] tons, respectively, which decreased by [22.30V 24.14]%, [22.92U 24.74]% and [23.399U 25.24]%, respectively, compared with the original scheme. In addition, the optimized model of low-carbon emission reduction in urban agglomeration based on TSP shows that the cost of greenhouse gas emission reduction is 926.85 million yuan, 870.39 million yuan and 806.62 million yuan respectively at the low, middle and high probability levels. Compared with the 1.18241 billion yuan greenhouse gas emission reduction cost in the first stage decision plan planning period, the optimization scheme of the carbon emission reduction model of urban agglomeration based on TSP method reduces the cost of carbon emission reduction by 21.63 at the probability level of 0.01g / 0.050.1. 26.38% and 31.78% respectively. On the other hand, The decision scheme based on the TSP optimization model of low carbon emission reduction in urban agglomeration not only meets the national "12th Five-Year Plan" for greenhouse gas emission control and "the 12th Five-Year Plan of Hunan Province" for the development of Changzhou-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban agglomeration. Requirements for relevant binding indicators in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration region, Moreover, it is possible to plan the land area of carbon sequestration in the planning area, control the carbon sink area reasonably, realize the effective reduction of the total amount of urban carbon emissions, fully develop unused land, restrict the rapid development of urbanization and waste land, etc. Rational and effective use of land resources to achieve the optimal economic objectives.
【学位授予单位】:东北林业大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2016
【分类号】:X321

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