化工园区多米诺事故风险评价与防控技术综述

发布时间：2018-04-15 13:51

本文选题：多米诺效应 + 风险评价　；参考：《化工进展》2017年04期

【摘要】：定量风险评价是化工厂区或园区预防多米诺效应的主要方法,各类事故预防与控制措施的制定及其有效性检验也依赖于多米诺效应定量风险评价的结果。然而,由于概率风险表征、多米诺场景概率结构、火灾与爆炸致损概率等存在多种不一致或解释不明确的方法模型,使风险评价结果差异性很大,无法更进一步对各类多米诺事故预防与控制技术进行评估。本文首先界定了多米诺效应的基本概念和原理,然后对当前文献中相关多米诺效应定量风险评价方法进行深入剖析,明确了多米诺场景概率以及火灾热辐射、爆炸冲击波、爆炸碎片致损概率的计算方法。另外,还从阈值与安全距离、安全容量及布局优化、安全屏障与防火隔热层、安全与应急管理决策支持、安防与脆弱性分析及灾害衍生事故等方面对多米诺事故防控技术进行了评述。最后,指出以目标设备为核心的各类致损概率计算方法,即设备易损性,是后续研究的关注焦点。
[Abstract]:Quantitative risk assessment is the main method to prevent domino effect in chemical plant area or park. The formulation and validity test of various accident prevention and control measures also depend on the result of domino effect quantitative risk evaluation.However, because of the probability risk representation, the domino scenario probability structure, the fire and explosion damage probability and so on, there are many different methods and models, which make the risk evaluation results very different.It is not possible to further evaluate the various domino accident prevention and control techniques.In this paper, the basic concept and principle of domino effect are defined, and then the quantitative risk assessment method of domino effect in current literature is deeply analyzed, and the probability of domino scene, fire heat radiation and explosion shock wave are defined.A method for calculating the probability of damage caused by explosion debris.In addition, from threshold and safety distance, safety capacity and layout optimization, safety barrier and fire insulation layer, safety and emergency management decision support,The technology of domino accident prevention and control is reviewed in the aspects of security and vulnerability analysis and disaster-derived accidents.Finally, it is pointed out that all kinds of damage probability calculation methods, I. e., equipment vulnerability, which take target equipment as the core, are the focus of further research.
【作者单位】：华南理工大学安全科学与工程研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(21576102) 国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0801500)项目
【分类号】：TQ086

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