考虑心理潜变量的出行方式选择行为模型

发布时间：2018-01-04 11:18

本文关键词：考虑心理潜变量的出行方式选择行为模型　出处：《中国公路学报》2014年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为系统考虑心理因素对出行方式选择行为的影响,以计划行为理论为框架整合了对通勤方式选择行为具有影响的各种心理因素,分别对摩托车、公交车和小汽车构建了3种多指标多原因模型,估计模型参数后预测心理影响潜变量的拟合值,作为解释自变量加入到传统的条件Logit模型中形成了混合选择模型。采用实证数据分别以公交车和小汽车作为效用基础项估计并比较了传统离散选择模型和混合选择模型中各参数影响的异同,最后利用月收入的变动检验了2个模型的预测能力。结果表明:不是所有的心理影响潜变量都对通勤方式选择行为有显著性影响,混合选择模型比传统不带潜变量的选择模型对实证数据具有更高的拟合度,其预测值也更为稳健。
[Abstract]:In order to consider the influence of psychological factors on travel mode choice behavior systematically, this paper integrates all kinds of psychological factors which have influence on commuting mode choice behavior in the framework of planning behavior theory, respectively. After estimating the parameters of the model, the fitting value of the latent variables of psychological influence was predicted. The mixed selection model was formed by adding the explanatory independent variable to the traditional conditional Logit model. The utility basis items of bus and car were estimated and compared with the traditional discrete selection model using empirical data. And the influence of each parameter in the mixed selection model. Finally, the predictive ability of the two models was tested by using the change of monthly income. The results show that not all the latent variables of psychological influence have significant influence on commuting mode choice behavior. The mixed selection model has a higher fit to the empirical data than the traditional selection model without latent variables, and its prediction value is also more robust.
【作者单位】：上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院;江苏大学汽车与交通工程学院;江苏大学财经学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71373105) 教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(11YJC630084) 江苏省社会科学基金项目(11SHD011)
【分类号】：U491.1
【正文快照】： 0引言为了能够根据出行者的偏好规划满足社会需求和具有可持续发展性的交通运输系统,交通规划和管理部门需要深刻理解影响出行者出行方式选择的差异性偏好。加深对出行方式选择内在原因的认识,对于提高出行者出行的效率,提升出行者选择各种出行方式的便利性,以及更加合理划分

【共引文献】