基于耗散理论的海上危化品运输安全研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 05:37

本文关键词：基于耗散理论的海上危化品运输安全研究　出处：《大连海事大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：海上大宗危化品货物运输是国民经济发展的基础和有力保障。受到危化品货物理化属性、海运环境复杂性等因素的影响,海上危化品运输系统表现出明显的开放性、动态性、不确定性、不可逆性和突变性特点。虽然近几十年来,国内外学者对海上危化品运输系统安全予以了充分关注,提出各种方案增进运输安全,但是方案多具有一定的局限性和片面性。针对海上危化品运输系统的上述特点,基于耗散理论和实船工作经验,提出从系统能量和熵两个方面入手促进系统安全。针对危化品货物理化属性对系统安全的影响,首先从“人-机-环境”系统工程学出发研究了海上危化品运输系统构成,提出了以“人”、“船”、“环境”、“货物”和“管理”等五个安全因素构建的危化品运输系统模型。在剖析运输系统特点的基础上,提出以耗散理论为基础开展安全研究。考虑到海上危化品运输系统具有动态性、开放性特点,以及物理学中有关能量的定义,提出运输系统广义“安全能量”概念,并以“安全能量”为研究标的度量系统可靠性。为此,首先研究了一般系统能量的构成、能量的守恒与转化,研究了海上危化品运输系统势能的耗散,构建了海上危化品运输系统势能函数模型,最后提出从安全保障技术和安全管理两方面入手提高系统可靠性、促进系统安全。针对运输系统的不确定性,研究了熵与系统稳定性的关系以及海上危化品运输系统耗散机理,提出了危化品运输系统安全熵概念,构建了系统安全熵评价模型,最后提出综合考虑系统可靠性(能量)和稳定性(安全熵)评价系统安全。在此基础上,进一步研究了最小风险路径原理,提出基于不确定条件的安全路径选择方法,完成了危化品运输系统安全状态评价研究。在上述系统能量、熵及最小风险路径研究基础上,从安全保障技术与安全管理两方面研究了促进运输安全的具体方法,包括规避有害气体的危化品船舶机动航法模型、博弈论在危化品运输系统安全管理中的应用等。以能量和熵为研究标的,以系统论、非线性理论、耗散理论为基础开展海上危化品运输系统安全评价研究,以烟羽模型、博弈论为理论基础开展海上危化品运输系统安全保障与管理技术研究,既是对复杂、不确定系统开展可靠性与稳定性研究的探索,更是对海上交通工程领域安全评价与保障技术的完善。
[Abstract]:The transportation of dangerous chemicals by sea is the basis and powerful guarantee of the development of national economy. It is influenced by the physical and chemical properties of dangerous chemicals and the complexity of marine environment. The transport system of dangerous chemicals at sea shows obvious characteristics of openness, dynamics, uncertainty, irreversibility and mutation, although in recent decades. Scholars at home and abroad have paid full attention to the safety of the transportation system of dangerous chemicals at sea, and put forward various schemes to improve the transport safety. However, most of the schemes have some limitations and one-sidedness. According to the above characteristics of the transportation system of dangerous chemicals at sea, based on dissipative theory and actual ship working experience. The system security is promoted from two aspects of system energy and entropy. In view of the effect of physical and chemical properties of dangerous chemicals on system safety, the composition of transportation system of dangerous chemicals at sea is studied from the point of "man-machine-environment" system engineering, and the "man" and "ship" are put forward. The transport system model of dangerous chemicals is constructed by five safety factors, such as "environment", "cargo" and "management". On the basis of analyzing the characteristics of transportation system, a safety study based on dissipative theory is put forward. In view of the dynamic and open characteristics of the transport system of dangerous chemicals at sea and the definition of energy in physics, the concept of "safe energy" in the broad sense of transport system is put forward. The reliability of measurement system based on "safe energy" is studied. Firstly, the energy composition, conservation and transformation of general system are studied, and the potential energy dissipation of transportation system of dangerous chemicals at sea is studied. The potential energy function model of the transportation system of dangerous chemicals at sea is constructed. At last, it is put forward to improve the reliability of the system and promote the safety of the system from the aspects of safety guarantee technology and safety management. Aiming at the uncertainty of transportation system, the relationship between entropy and system stability and the dissipative mechanism of transportation system of dangerous chemicals at sea are studied, and the concept of safety entropy of transportation system of dangerous chemicals is put forward. The system safety entropy evaluation model is constructed. Finally, the system reliability (energy) and stability (safety entropy) evaluation model is proposed. On this basis, the principle of minimum risk path is further studied. A method of safety path selection based on uncertain conditions is proposed, and the research on safety state evaluation of dangerous chemicals transportation system is completed. On the basis of the energy, entropy and minimum risk path of the system mentioned above, the specific methods to promote transportation safety are studied from the aspects of safety assurance technology and safety management. It includes the hazardous chemicals ship maneuvering navigation model and the application of game theory in the safety management of dangerous chemicals transportation system. Based on system theory, nonlinear theory and dissipation theory, the safety evaluation of transportation system of dangerous chemicals at sea is carried out based on energy and entropy, and smoke plume model is used. Based on the theory of game theory, the research on the safety guarantee and management technology of the transportation system of dangerous chemicals at sea is not only the exploration of the research on the reliability and stability of the complex and uncertain system. It also improves the safety evaluation and security technology in the field of marine traffic engineering.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U695.292;U698.3

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