大型市政道路BT模式风险分析和分担研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 10:29

本文关键词：大型市政道路BT模式风险分析和分担研究　出处：《西南交通大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国城市化的发展,基础设施的建设越来越重要,但沉重的政府债务负担使其融资陷入困境,而较为新型的BT模式则为此提供了新的途径。但是国家尚未对该模式出台相关法律法规进行约束,造成在国内应用时无规范借鉴并遭受了“带资承包”等质疑。而且,BT项目大多具有规模大、参与方众多、外部环境复杂和风险因素多等特点,因此各参与方在项目中的风险管理工作就显得尤为重要。本文即针对以上现象中存在的一些问题展开研究,以期对BT项目的规范性运行、风险识别和评价以及风险分担工作提供借鉴和指导。主要研究工作如下： 1.阐述了BT模式在我国应用时遇到的问题及其风险管理的复杂性和特殊性,并介绍了BT模式的内涵、特点和工作流程,并将BT模式与其它几种类似PPP融资模式进行对比分析,总结出BT模式的适用性。 2.在明确我国常见的BT模式运行方式的参与方关系、内涵和特点之后,筛选了若干判别标准,对各运行方式进行合规性判别,并给出了规范运作的建议。 3.为了解决风险管理的核心问题即风险分担问题,本文在目前的研究基础之上,提出关于BT模式风险分担的原则和实施流程框图。 4.将目前我国常用的风险识别方法进行对比,筛选出符合BT模式风险识别的方法,即WBS-RBS法,并对BT模式主要参与方的工作和风险进行了分解。 5.结合BT项目风险评价的特点和要求,本文筛选出ISM法和模糊综合评判法并将它们一起运用于风险分析和评价,让这两种方法的优势互补。 6.结合成都天府大道南延线BT项目进行实证分析：用WBS-RBS法识别本项目主要参与方的风险并编制风险清单,然后建立评价指标体系；接着用ISM法和模糊综合评判法对主要参与方的风险进行分析和评价,其中隶属度和风险权重的确定分别使用的是均值法和AHP法。计算分析后得出项目主要参与方的风险关联和层次结构图、风险等级和排序以及整体风险水平,并结合项目实际验证了评价方法的科学性。最后按照文中提出的风险分担原则和流程对该项目的风险进行了分担并做出必要说明。
[Abstract]:With the development of urbanization in China, the construction of infrastructure is becoming more and more important, but the heavy burden of government debt makes its financing difficult. The relatively new BT model provides a new way to this end, but the state has not yet issued the relevant laws and regulations to restrict the model. Because of the lack of reference in domestic applications and has been questioned by "with capital contracting". And most of the BT projects have the characteristics of large scale, many participants, complex external environment and many risk factors. Therefore, the risk management work of the participants in the project is particularly important. This paper aims at some problems in the above phenomenon, with a view to the normative operation of BT projects. Risk identification and evaluation as well as risk sharing provide reference and guidance. The main research work is as follows: 1. The problems encountered in the application of BT mode in China and the complexity and particularity of risk management are expounded, and the connotation, characteristics and workflow of BT mode are introduced. The BT model is compared with other similar PPP financing models, and the applicability of BT model is summarized. 2. After defining the relationship, connotation and characteristics of the common BT operation mode in China, some discriminant standards are selected to judge the compliance of each operation mode. Some suggestions on the standard operation are also given. 3. In order to solve the core problem of risk management, which is risk sharing, this paper puts forward the principle and implementation flow chart of risk sharing in BT mode on the basis of current research. 4.Compared with the common risk identification methods in our country at present, the WBS-RBS method, which accords with BT pattern risk recognition method, is screened out. The work and risk of the main participants in BT mode are decomposed. 5. According to the characteristics and requirements of BT project risk evaluation, this paper selects the ISM method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and applies them to risk analysis and evaluation together, so that the advantages of the two methods complement each other. 6.According to the BT project of Chengdu Tianfu Avenue South extension Line, this paper uses WBS-RBS method to identify the risk of the main participants of the project and make the risk list, and then establish the evaluation index system; Then the ISM method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are used to analyze and evaluate the risk of the main participants. The determination of membership and risk weight is based on the mean method and AHP method respectively. After the calculation and analysis of the main participants in the project risk association and hierarchy chart risk ranking and ranking as well as the overall risk level. Finally, according to the principle and process of risk sharing proposed in this paper, the risk of the project is shared and the necessary explanation is made.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU997;U415.1

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