基于改进事故树法的盾构隧道施工风险分析

发布时间：2018-01-21 03:26

本文关键词： 地铁盾构地表沉降模糊事故树云模型 T-S模糊事故树刀盘失效　出处：《华中科技大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国地铁隧道工程建设随着经济跨越式的发展也取得了长足的进步，但随着全国各地大中型城市地铁项目遍地铺开，地铁隧道工程施工风险管理问题逐渐凸显。地铁隧道工程历时长、随机变动大、管理难度大、风险因素错综复杂等因素促发了地铁隧道建设过程人员伤亡和财产损失，对国家经济建设与可持续发展和人民生命财产安全构成了严重的威胁，地铁隧道工程风险评价与预警亟需提上日程。本文结合模糊事故树法、云模型理论、T-S事故树法，对地铁隧道盾构施工引发地表沉降和盾构刀盘失效风险展开了系统的分析和研究。首先从适用范围等维度对比分析了现有的风险评价方法，针对在地铁盾构施工过程中存在工程情况的不确定性特点，提出采用模糊事故树和T-S事故树分别评价盾构施工地表沉降和盾构刀盘失效风险。研究基于模糊事故树盾构施工地表沉降风险，分析了传统模糊化方法的局限以及基于云模型模糊化的可行性，以盾构施工引发地表沉降为案例，将云模型方法引入事故树分析，处理专家在划分风险因素概率分布范围过程中定性语言和定量值之间的转换，通过对云图凝聚性的修正，确定各风险因素的概率分布范围和基本事件的概率值，进一步得到基本事件模糊重要度，由此明确影响大的基本事件，便于实际施工时制定防范措施。引入T-S模糊事故树模型，以盾构刀盘失效为案例，用模糊可能性表示刀盘失效事故树基本事件的故障发生概率，解决刀盘事故树基本事件概率信息不足的问题；用T-S门来表示刀盘事故树基本事件之间的关系，取代传统的“和”门与“或”门，解决刀盘事故树基本事件关系复杂难以表示的问题，得到影响盾构刀盘失效的主要影响因素，，进一步为地铁隧道盾构刀盘失效提供故障排查建议，从而进一步为工程风险管理提供参考。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, the construction of subway tunnel project in our country has made great progress, but with the spread of subway projects in large and medium-sized cities all over the country. The construction risk management problem of subway tunnel project is gradually prominent. The subway tunnel project has a long history, large random change, and the management is difficult. The complexity of risk factors and other factors promote the subway tunnel construction process casualties and property losses, and pose a serious threat to the national economic construction and sustainable development and the safety of people's lives and property. Subway tunnel engineering risk assessment and early warning need to be put on the agenda. This paper combines fuzzy accident tree method with cloud model theory and T-S accident tree method. In this paper, the ground subsidence and the risk of shield cutter head failure caused by shield construction of subway tunnel are systematically analyzed and studied. Firstly, the existing risk assessment methods are compared and analyzed from the applicable scope and other dimensions. In view of the uncertain characteristics of the engineering situation in the construction process of metro shield machine. The fuzzy accident tree and T-S fault tree are used to evaluate the surface settlement and the failure risk of shield cutter head respectively. The surface subsidence risk of shield construction based on fuzzy accident tree is studied. This paper analyzes the limitation of traditional fuzzy method and the feasibility of fuzzification based on cloud model. Taking the ground subsidence caused by shield construction as a case, the cloud model method is introduced into accident tree analysis. The paper deals with the conversion between qualitative language and quantitative value in the process of dividing the probability distribution range of risk factors, and determines the probability distribution range of each risk factor and the probability value of basic events by modifying the cohesion of cloud map. Furthermore, the fuzzy importance degree of basic events is obtained, which clearly affects the large basic events and is convenient to formulate preventive measures in actual construction. T-S fuzzy accident tree model is introduced, and the failure of shield cutter head is taken as an example. Fuzzy possibility is used to express the probability of failure of the basic event of the cutter head failure accident tree, which solves the problem that the probability information of the basic event of the cutter head fault tree is insufficient. T-S gate is used to express the relationship between the basic events of the cutter head accident tree, instead of the traditional "sum" "door and" or "door", to solve the complex and difficult problem of the basic event relationship of the cutter head accident tree. The main influencing factors of shield cutter head failure are obtained, and the fault troubleshooting suggestion for shield cutter head failure in subway tunnel is provided, thus providing a reference for engineering risk management.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U455.43

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