我国道路交通事故特点规律及预防研究

发布时间：2018-01-23 03:35

本文关键词： 道路交通事故预测分布预防　出处：《长安大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：交通安全状况已成为全球各个国家关注的重点问题。每年，全球因道路交通事故失去生命的有130多万人，而中国是世界上道路交通事故最为严重的国家之一，交通安全形势堪忧。所以开展交通事故规律特点研究具有十分重要的意义。首先，本文阐述了当前国内外道路安全工作研究现状，援引我国2007年—2011年交通事故统计资料，对道路交通事故发生规律及对策进行研究与分析。对我国道路交通事故的分布规律，包括时间分布、空间分布、交通事故形态分布、死亡人员类型、不同天候下的分布进行了研究分析，，以直观的图形给出了交通事故在各种状态下的分布规律。其次，结合我国近几年道路交通事故发生情况，分别从机动车、非机动车驾驶人及行人因素、车辆自身的性能及状况、道路类型、线型设计、交通控制方式以及气候等方面对我国交通事故的成因进行深入分析，阐述各影响因素与交通事故的关系；运用灰色预测GM（1，1)模型，采用灰色预测法，对我国未来几年的交通事故的死亡人数趋势进行预测，并对预测结果进行了检验。最后，通过对人、车、路、环境四方面的分析的基础之上，提出了交通事故的预防原则和预防对策，期望能对我国交通安全水平的提高有所帮助。
[Abstract]:Traffic safety has become a major concern of all countries in the world. Every year, more than 1.3 million people lose their lives due to road traffic accidents in the world. However, China is one of the most serious road traffic accidents in the world, and the traffic safety situation is worrying, so it is of great significance to study the characteristics of traffic accidents. First of all, this paper describes the current situation of road safety research at home and abroad, citing the statistical data of traffic accidents from 2007 to 2011 in China. The distribution law of road traffic accident in China, including time distribution, space distribution, traffic accident form distribution and death type, are studied and analyzed. The distribution of traffic accidents under different weather conditions is studied and analyzed. Secondly, combined with the occurrence of road traffic accidents in China in recent years, respectively from the motor vehicle, non-motor vehicle driver and pedestrian factors, the performance and status of the vehicle itself, road types, linear design. In the aspects of traffic control mode and climate, the causes of traffic accidents in China are deeply analyzed, and the relationship between the influence factors and traffic accidents is expounded. In this paper, the grey forecast GM1 / 1) model is used to predict the trend of traffic accident fatalities in China in the next few years, and the forecast results are tested. Finally, based on the analysis of human, vehicle, road and environment, this paper puts forward the prevention principles and preventive countermeasures of traffic accidents, which is expected to be helpful to improve the level of traffic safety in China.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.31

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