高速公路路面服务性能评价及预测模型研究

发布时间：2018-01-30 08:37

本文关键词： 路面管理系统服务性能动态加权评价线性回归预测模型　出处：《兰州交通大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：高速公路是一种现代化的运输通道，对经济的发展起着越来越重要的作用。近年来，随着高速公路的蓬勃发展，我国高速公路的通车里程迅速增长，为全社会带来巨大的社会经济效益。高速公路的养护任务也随之愈来愈重，养护管理工作也日益复杂。公路的养护，我们提倡预防为主，在前期发现问题隐患并及早修正，避免后期灾害出现时大规模的投入，在一定程度上节约了资金，也提升了公路作为公共基础设施的服务水平。我国很早就意识到了预防性养护的重要性，并着手研究，时至今日，已存在众多使用性能评价方法，但大多数仍然是针对传统的养护模式，不适应于当下所面临的种种新问题。我们通过对高速公路路面早期破坏现象的调查，运用合适的评价方法进行评价，并建立切合实际的性能预测模型，继而为养护决策做出依据，仍然具有十分重要的意义。对建设单位的建设投资、养护单位的养护费用以及基于使用者视角的路面服务水平都影响重大，，直接影响各方的经济效益。就目前来说，我国的评价体系主要是针对普通沥青路面的。本文通过分析沥青路面服务水平下降的原因，进而测定路面的结构强度、损坏状况、行驶质量、安全性能四种评价指标，在此基础上计算路面行驶质量指数（RQI）、路面抗滑性能指数（SRI）、路面状况指数（PCI）以及路面结构强度指数（PSSI），最终以该四项指标计算路面养护质量指数PQI，并将路面养护质量指数作为评价的最终标准。针对评价体系过于单一，权重赋值过于主观的情况，在模糊评价的基础上采用了动态赋权值的方法，探讨了性能评价的新方法。通过路面综合性能评价，结合相关数据和影响道路服务性能的主要因素，对性能预测模型进行了研究。在综合分析力学预测模型、力学一经验预测模型、经验回归预测模型和概率型预测模型等各种模型优、缺点的基础上，尝试运用线性回归分析法，根据实测数据对表征路面服务性能的相关数据进行预测，对其中部分预测值用实测数据进行检验，确定了线性回归分析方法的可行性与有效性。
[Abstract]:Expressway is a modern transportation channel, which plays a more and more important role in the development of economy. In recent years, with the vigorous development of freeway, the mileage of expressway in our country is increasing rapidly. It brings great social and economic benefits to the whole society. The maintenance task of expressway is becoming more and more serious, and the maintenance and management work is becoming more and more complicated. Highway maintenance, we advocate prevention, in the early detection of hidden trouble and early correction, to avoid large-scale investment in late disasters, to a certain extent saved funds. The service level of highway as public infrastructure has also been improved. Our country has realized the importance of preventive maintenance for a long time, and began to study, up to now, there are many performance evaluation methods. However, most of them are still aimed at the traditional maintenance mode, which can not adapt to all kinds of new problems. Through the investigation of the early damage phenomenon of highway pavement, we use the appropriate evaluation method to evaluate. It is still of great significance to establish a practical performance prediction model and then make the basis for the maintenance decision. It is still of great significance to the construction investment of the construction unit. The maintenance cost of the maintenance unit and the pavement service level based on the perspective of the user have a great impact on the economic benefits of all parties. At present, the evaluation system of our country is mainly aimed at the ordinary asphalt pavement. This paper analyzes the reasons of the decline of the service level of the asphalt pavement, and then determines the structure strength, damage condition and driving quality of the pavement. On the basis of four evaluation indexes of safety performance, the road quality index (RQI) and the pavement anti-skid performance index (SRI) are calculated. The pavement condition index (PCI) and the pavement structural strength index (PSSI) are used to calculate the pavement maintenance quality index (PQI). The pavement maintenance quality index is regarded as the final standard of evaluation. Aiming at the situation that the evaluation system is too single and the weight assignment is too subjective, the method of dynamic weighting value is adopted on the basis of fuzzy evaluation. A new method of performance evaluation is discussed. Through the comprehensive performance evaluation of pavement, combined with the relevant data and the main factors affecting the performance of road service, the performance prediction model is studied. Based on the advantages and disadvantages of various models, such as empirical regression prediction model and probabilistic prediction model, this paper attempts to use linear regression analysis method to predict the related data which represent the pavement service performance according to the measured data. The feasibility and validity of the linear regression analysis method are determined by testing some of the predicted values with the measured data.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U418.6

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