北京市道路运输领域能源需求及污染物排放研究

发布时间：2018-02-10 20:09

本文关键词： LEAP模型情景分析法交通发展能源需求　出处：《长安大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：目前，全球面临着能源短缺，污染严重等多项环境问题，交通运输业作为能源消耗大户，其环境问题尤为明显。随着国民经济的快速发展，，交通需求量急剧增加，从而引发的能源需求量及污染物排放量也不断攀升。交通运输业能源消耗及污染物排放占整个社会能源消耗及污染物排放的比例较大，且呈逐年上升的趋势，建立低碳交通运输体系显得尤为重要。本文以北京市交通运输业为例，着重研究道路运输领域的能源需求及污染物排放问题。首先，将道路运输领域分为社会交通、城市公共交通、其他客运、道路货运四个子部门；其次，以2011年为基准年，参考2005-2010年的数据，通过灰色预测模型预测2020年北京市道路运输领域的交通需求量；最后，结合LEAP模型对未来北京市道路运输领域能源需求及污染物排放进行情景模拟。模型设定了基准情景和最佳情景，基准情景作为参考情景，假设政府没有采取任何节能减排措施来遏制道路运输领域能源需求及污染物排放的增加，最佳情景作为乐观情景，研究政府采取发展公共交通、推广节能环保车、提高燃油经济性等节能减排措施后道路运输领域能源需求及污染物排放的变化。研究结果表明，2020年最佳情景比基准情景节能达22.86%，CO2，NOX的排放量分别减少11.85%、8.66%。
[Abstract]:At present, the world is faced with many environmental problems, such as energy shortage, serious pollution and so on. As a large consumer of energy, the environmental problems of transportation industry are particularly obvious. With the rapid development of national economy, traffic demand increases sharply. As a result, the energy demand and pollutant emissions are also rising. Energy consumption and pollutant emissions in the transportation industry account for a large proportion of the energy consumption and pollutant emissions in the whole society, and the trend is increasing year by year. It is particularly important to establish a low-carbon transportation system. This paper takes the transportation industry of Beijing as an example to study the energy demand and pollutant emission in the field of road transportation. Firstly, the field of road transport is divided into social traffic, urban public transport, other passenger transport. Secondly, taking 2011 as the base year and referring to the data from 2005-2010, the traffic demand in Beijing on 2020 is forecasted by grey forecast model. Finally, Based on the LEAP model, the future energy demand and pollutant emission in Beijing road transportation are simulated. The model sets up the baseline scenario and the best scenario, and the benchmark scenario is used as the reference scenario. Assuming that the government has not taken any energy conservation measures to curb the increase in energy demand and pollutant emissions in road transport, the best scenario is to study the government's efforts to develop public transport and promote energy-efficient and environmentally friendly vehicles as an optimistic scenario. The change of energy demand and pollutant emission in road transportation field after improving fuel economy and other measures of energy saving and emission reduction. The results show that in 2020, the best scenario can save energy by 11.85% and 8.66%, respectively, when compared with the baseline scenario, which can save energy by 22.86% and reduce the emission of CO _ (2) O _ (2) O _ (2).
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U49;X734

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