人因海事事故诱因组合模式分析与预测

发布时间：2018-02-22 08:57

本文关键词： 人因失误海事事故诱因组合人的因素分析与分类系统(HFACS) Bootstrap　出处：《上海海事大学学报》2014年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为深入了解人因失误对海事事故的诱发机制,以事故历史数据为基础,对诱因组合模式进行分析和预测.在阐述"瑞士奶酪"模型和人的因素分析与分类系统(Human Factors Analysis and Classification System,HFACS)核心思想的基础上,构建人因海事事故诱因分类体系.将诱因量化为矩阵并通过矩阵转化和聚类分析等提取事故主要诱因组合模式,利用Bootstrap方法对主要诱因组合模式进行预测,结果有助于决策者制定针对性强、可操作性高的防范措施,可以从根本上提高海上运输安全性.
[Abstract]:In order to gain a deeper understanding of the inducing mechanism of human error to maritime accidents, and based on the historical data of accidents, Based on the analysis and prediction of the model of inducement combination, the core ideas of "Swiss cheese" model and human factor analysis and classification system (Human Factors Analysis and Classification system HFACSs) are expounded. This paper constructs the classification system of inducement caused by human maritime accident, quantifies the inducement into matrix and extracts the main inducement combination mode of accident by matrix transformation and cluster analysis, and forecasts the main inducement combination model by Bootstrap method. The results are helpful for the decision-makers to formulate preventive measures with strong pertinence and maneuverability, which can fundamentally improve the safety of maritime transportation.
【作者单位】：大连海事大学交通运输管理学院;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(11JZD049)
【分类号】：U698.6

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