北极航线对我国对外贸易潜力的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-18 03:14

本文选题：北极航线　切入点：对外贸易潜力　出处：《大连海事大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：北极科考数据显示,北极变暖速度远快于预期,北冰洋冰层融化速度加快,极有可能在2050年出现夏季无冰状态。北极航线是北冰洋上连通太平洋与大西洋的航道,狭义上分为西北航道和东北航道。北极航线开通后,将成为连接东北亚与北美、北欧的海上运输走廊,以最短海上距离连接世界主要生产市场和消费市场。由于海上运输具有价格低、运量大的特点,90%以上的国际货物贸易需要依靠海上运输来完成,北极航线引起的海上运输路径改变势必在很大程度上影响世界贸易格局。中国对外贸易也依赖于海上运输,且中国处于、北极航线的延长线上,北极航线的全线开通必将影响到中国贸易,使中国除现有东向太平洋航线、西向大西洋航线外,增加一条到达欧洲和北美洲的更为便捷和安全的海上航线。本文首先阐述了研究背景与意义,国内外相关研究进展,以及本文的研究方法与框架。紧接着,本文介绍了北极航线自然情况与通航情况现状,并以宏观的角度从机会和威胁两方面,定性分析了北极航线通航对我国对外贸易产生的影响。之后,本文详细分析了对外贸易潜力研究的理论基础,即随机前沿模型的产生、发展和应用,以及技术效率的理论内涵和测算方法。在此基础上,本文选取79个国家10年间的面板数据为研究样本,利用随机前沿引力模型对我国出口贸易与进出口贸易两方面进行估计,证明了海运距离与我国对外贸易之间的负相关关系。根据所得到的参数方程与技术效率值,本文测算现阶段的我国的对外贸易潜力,以及北极航线通航后我国的对外贸易潜力,并将两者进行对比,肯定了北极航线对我国对外贸易潜力的积极影响。结果表明,北极航线通航可以使我国与样本国家的海运距离缩短20%-35%,使我国进出口潜力平均提升8.48%,出口潜力平均提升12.85%,若以北极航线开通后的对外贸易潜力为目标,我国对外贸易仍有极大的拓展空间。同时,我国与样本国家之间的贸易效率有待提高,以充分发挥北极航线通航对我国对外贸易的推动作用。
[Abstract]:Arctic data show that the Arctic is warming much faster than expected, and that the Arctic ice is melting faster, and that it is likely to be ice-free in summer on 2050. The Arctic route connects the Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean. In a narrow sense, it is divided into the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage. When the Arctic route is opened, it will become a maritime transport corridor connecting Northeast Asia with North America and Northern Europe. The world's main production markets and consumer markets are connected by the shortest distance at sea. Since maritime transport is characterized by low prices and large volumes, more than 90% of international trade in goods needs to be accomplished by sea transport. The changes in shipping routes caused by the Arctic route are bound to affect the pattern of world trade to a large extent. China's foreign trade also depends on maritime transport, and China is on the extended route of the Arctic route. The opening of the entire Arctic route will affect China's trade, and China will add a more convenient and safe sea route to Europe and North America, in addition to the existing East Pacific and West Atlantic routes. This paper first describes the background and significance of the research, the related research progress at home and abroad, as well as the research methods and framework of this paper. In this paper, the influence of Arctic route navigation on China's foreign trade is analyzed qualitatively from the perspective of opportunity and threat. Then, the theoretical basis of the research on the potential of foreign trade is analyzed in detail, that is, the generation of stochastic frontier model. Development and application, and the theoretical connotation and measurement methods of technical efficiency. Based on this, the panel data from 79 countries over a period of 10 years are selected as the research samples. The stochastic frontier gravity model is used to estimate China's export trade and import and export trade, and the negative correlation between sea transport distance and China's foreign trade is proved. This paper calculates the foreign trade potential of our country at the present stage, and the foreign trade potential of our country after the Arctic route navigation, and compares the two, and confirms the positive influence of the Arctic route on our country's foreign trade potential. The results show that the shipping distance between China and the sample countries can be shortened by 20 to 35 percent, the import and export potential of our country will be increased by 8.48 on average, and the export potential will be increased by 12.85 percent on average. If we aim at the foreign trade potential after the opening of the Arctic route, At the same time, the trade efficiency between China and the sample countries needs to be improved in order to give full play to the role of Arctic route navigation to promote China's foreign trade.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752;U697.33

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