基于区间不确定性的厦门市停车需求预测

发布时间：2018-03-18 04:21

本文选题：厦门市　切入点：区间分析　出处：《长沙理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：停车需求预测是进行停车规划的基础,然而,传统的停车需求预测方法忽视需求的不确定性,容易导致决策风险。本文以厦门市为研究对象,充分考虑需求的不确定性,对其停车需求进行预测,具有较好的现实意义。本文首先对厦门市停车现状进行调查,对停车需求特征与停车设施供给现状进行分析,明确了停车设施规划亟待解决的问题。论文对厦门市停车需求影响因素进行了分析,并对现有停车需求预测模型进行了总结,针对其忽视需求不确定性的缺陷,提出解决思路。运用区间分析理论,分析了采用区间数度量需求不确定性所具有的优势。在此基础上,分别构建区间线性回归方法与区间组合预测两种模型,得到厦门市居民停车需求的区间预测结果。根据已有城市的规划水平,构建了非线性回归模型,得到了厦门市停车设施区间供应结构。本文提出的停车需求预测方法充分考虑了需求的不确定性,结果表明,预测方法可靠有效,对于我国城市停车规划具有较好的应用前景。
[Abstract]:Parking demand forecasting is the basis of parking planning. However, the traditional parking demand forecasting methods ignore the uncertainty of demand, easy to cause the decision risk. This paper takes Xiamen city as the research object, considering the uncertainty of demand, forecasts the parking demand, which is of practical significance. This paper first carries on the investigation to the current situation Xiamen City, the status of parking demand and parking facilities supply characteristics are analyzed, the parking facilities planning problems to be solved. This paper analyzes the influence factors of parking demand in Xiamen City, and the existing parking demand forecasting model is summarized, aiming at the shortcoming of ignoring demand uncertainty, puts forward the solution. By using interval analysis the theory, analysis the advantage of interval number of measurement uncertainty of demand. On this basis, construct interval linear regression method and Two kinds of interval combination forecasting model, the prediction interval parking demand of Xiamen residents results. According to the existing city planning level, construct a nonlinear regression model, Xiamen city parking facilities supply structure interval is obtained. The parking demand forecast method proposed in this paper give full consideration to the demand uncertainty, the results show that the prediction method is effective and reliable and has a good application prospect for our city parking planning.

【学位授予单位】：长沙理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.7

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