基于竞争风险模型的居民活动-出行计划研究

发布时间：2018-03-20 20:59

本文选题：城市交通　切入点：活动-出行行为　出处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2014年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：对出行者活动-出行计划行为的研究有助于进一步解析出行者的行为决策机理,也是制定和实施交通管理政策的前提.本文扩展了传统的基于单一删失事件的生存风险研究,将竞争风险模型应用于出行者活动时间分配行为的研究,基于吉林市居民出行数据的分析,提取出行者制定活动计划的影响因素,通过敏感性分析,解析出行者在连续时间轴上活动参与类型与活动持续时间的联合选择过程.结果表明:出行者N次与N+1次活动之间存在相互联系、相互制约关系,且关系强度又随着参与活动类型的不同而存在显著差异,竞争风险模型能有效应用于这些差异性的分析,丰富和扩展了出行行为的分析理论与方法.
[Abstract]:The study of traveller activity and travel planning behavior is helpful to further analyze the behavior decision-making mechanism of travelers, and is also the premise of formulating and implementing traffic management policies. This paper extends the traditional research on survival risk based on single censored event. This paper applies the competition risk model to the study on the behavior of time allocation of travelers' activities, and based on the analysis of the travel data of residents in Jilin City, extracts the factors that affect the travelers' planning of activities, and analyzes the sensitivity of the activities. This paper analyzes the joint selection process between the type of participation and the duration of activities on the continuous time axis. The results show that there is a mutual relationship and restriction between the N times and the N 1 activity of the traveler. Moreover, the relationship intensity is significantly different with the different types of participating activities. The competitive risk model can be effectively applied to the analysis of these differences, which enriches and expands the theory and method of trip behavior analysis.
【作者单位】：吉林大学交通学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51278221) 博士后科学基金(2013M541307)
【分类号】：U491

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