基于Monte Carlo方法的船舶交通流生成器研究

发布时间：2018-03-31 07:37

本文选题：交通流　切入点：数据挖掘　出处：《大连海事大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：船舶交通仿真对海上交通监管、法规的制定及航路规划与设计有着极为重要的作用。船舶交通流产生器主要是产生某个研究海区内所有船舶的航行行为(即船舶交通)。通过产生船舶交通流来识别该海区中存在的交通问题,从而探寻解决海上交通问题的合理方案。为了解决传统交通观测方法获取的船舶交通流特征分布不准确的弊端,本文提出船舶交通流产生器,从反映真实船舶交通的AIS数据集中自动提取模型参数,从而更准确“再现”真实交通。本文具体内容和研究成果概括如下：第一、船舶交通流产生器的研究现状及Monte Carlo的应用现状概述。第二、船舶交通流的特点、特征、交通流构成和Monte Carlo在船舶交通流生成中的应用。第三、船舶交通流生成器的核心部分：船舶交通网络的构建和船舶产生模型。利用AIS数据,采用DBSCAN方法对船舶交通网络(运动模式)进行自动识别；通过对记录真实交通的AIS数据,运用Monte Carlo采样,获取准确的船舶生成时刻、船舶类型、大小及速度等信息。第四、船舶交通流生成器产生的交通与真实交通的比较,验证模型的有效性。结果表明该模型生产的船舶交通流与实际交通相符合。
[Abstract]:Ship traffic simulation for maritime traffic supervision, The establishment of laws and regulations and the planning and design of navigation routes play an extremely important role. The vessel traffic flow generator mainly produces the navigation behavior of all ships in a certain study area (I. e., ship traffic). The ship traffic flow is recognized by generating the ship traffic flow. No traffic problems in the area, In order to explore a reasonable solution to the problem of maritime traffic. In order to solve the problem of inaccurate distribution of ship traffic flow characteristics obtained by traditional traffic observation methods, a ship traffic flow generator is proposed in this paper, which automatically extracts model parameters from AIS data set, which reflects real ship traffic. In order to more accurately "reproduce" the real traffic. The specific contents and research results of this paper are summarized as follows:. Firstly, the research status of ship traffic flow generator and the application of Monte Carlo are summarized. Secondly, the characteristics and characteristics of ship traffic flow, traffic flow constitution and the application of Monte Carlo in ship traffic flow generation. Thirdly, the core part of the ship traffic flow generator is the construction of the ship traffic network and the ship generation model. Using the AIS data, the DBSCAN method is used to automatically identify the ship traffic network (motion mode). By recording the AIS data of real traffic and using Monte Carlo sampling, accurate ship generation time, ship type, size and speed are obtained. Fourth, the traffic generated by the ship traffic flow generator is compared with the real traffic, and the validity of the model is verified. The results show that the ship traffic flow produced by the model is consistent with the actual traffic.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U692

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