中国特大恶性交通事故分析

发布时间：2018-04-12 17:00

本文选题：特大恶性事故 + 影响因素　；参考：《长安大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济高速有效的发展，我国的道路交通事业有了长足的进步，但是我国已经进入道路交通事故的高峰期。尤其是一次死亡10人以上的特大恶性交通事故，其致死率约为50%，相比全国道路交通事故约20%的致死率，特大恶性交通事故造成的后果更加恶劣，因此对特大恶性交通事故进行深度分析以提高安全水平是具有重要意义的。本文针对特大恶性道路交通事故，从事故影响因素的角度建立事故数据库，采用了因子分析和决策树两种数据挖掘方法，全面深入地分析特大恶性交通事故。首先，收集2005-2012年全国特大恶性事故250起案例，建立特大恶性交通事故数据库，并对特大恶性事故的特征进行了统计分析，有效地把握了该类事故的分布规律。其次，对特大恶性事故的影响因素进行了分析，找出主要的影响因素。在人员、车辆、道路、环境影响因素中建立因子分析模型，通过因子分析得出公共因子，，由权重模型计算公共因子中各因素的重要度，进而得到事故主要影响因素。最后，在特大恶性事故主要影响因素中，采用C4.5决策树算法，建立死亡人数和致死率决策树模型，从死亡人数和致死率两个角度对事故进行深入分析，为提出预防对策，降低特大恶性事故的严重程度提供了依据。
[Abstract]:With the rapid and effective development of our country's economy, our country's road traffic industry has made great progress, but our country has entered the peak period of road traffic accident.In particular, the fatality rate of a serious traffic accident with more than 10 people dead is about 50. Compared with the fatality rate of about 20 percent of the country's road traffic accidents, the consequences of the extremely serious traffic accidents are even worse.So it is of great significance to analyze the serious traffic accidents in depth in order to improve the safety level.In this paper, an accident database is established from the point of view of the influencing factors of the serious road traffic accidents. Two kinds of data mining methods, factor analysis and decision tree, are used to analyze the serious traffic accidents comprehensively and deeply.Firstly, 250 cases of serious accidents in China from 2005 to 2012 were collected, and the database of extremely serious traffic accidents was established, and the characteristics of these accidents were statistically analyzed, and the distribution rules of such accidents were effectively grasped.Secondly, the influence factors of the serious accident are analyzed, and the main factors are found out.The factor analysis model is established in the factors affecting people, vehicles, roads and environment. The common factors are obtained by factor analysis, and the importance of each factor in common factors is calculated by the weight model, and then the main influencing factors of accidents are obtained.Finally, C4.5 decision tree algorithm is used to establish the decision tree model of death and fatality rate among the major influencing factors of the serious malignant accident. In order to put forward the preventive measures, the paper makes a deep analysis of the accident from the two angles of death and fatality.It provides the basis for reducing the severity of serious accidents.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.31

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