基于贝叶斯网络的农村公路典型路段事故风险评价方法

发布时间：2018-04-15 00:33

本文选题：农村公路 + 贝叶斯网络　；参考：《公路》2014年07期

【摘要】：农村公路急弯、陡坡、路侧险要等典型路段往往是事故易发多发路段。在现阶段农村公路安保工程资金有限的情况下,需对既有典型路段的事故风险进行定量评价和排序,为隐患路段的排查和安保工程分期实施提供依据。在现有研究成果的基础上,构建了典型路段事故风险评价指标体系,提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络的农村公路典型路段事故风险评价方法。该方法能有效集结专家知识和经验,定量评价典型路段(包括单一路段和组合路段)的事故风险,并可以随着数据的更新不断完善模型。在农村公路事故资料相对缺乏的情况下,该方法具有较强的实用性。
[Abstract]:The typical road sections, such as sharp bends, steep slopes and side risks, are prone to accidents.Under the condition of limited fund of rural highway security project, it is necessary to quantitatively evaluate and rank the accident risk of the existing typical road sections, which can provide the basis for the investigation of hidden danger sections and the phased implementation of security projects.Based on the existing research results, a typical road accident risk evaluation index system is constructed, and a Bayesian network based evaluation method of typical road road accident risk is proposed.This method can effectively gather the knowledge and experience of experts, quantitatively evaluate the accident risk of typical road sections (including single and combined sections), and improve the model with the updating of data.In the case of the lack of rural road accident data, this method has strong practicability.
【作者单位】：东南大学交通学院;淮阴工学院;
【基金】：交通部西部交通建设科技项目,项目编号20113182231230 国家自然科学基金资助项目,项目编号51278102
【分类号】：U491.3

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