道路交通统计生命价值形成机理与评价模型研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 15:41

本文选题：统计生命价值 + 条件价值法　；参考：《大连理工大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国道路交通事故死亡人数和万车死亡率一直位于世界之首,我国道路交通管理部门实施了多种道路交通安全项目,道路交通安全形势取得一定好转。如何科学评价道路交通安全项目的成效,是国内外研究学者十分关心的问题。目前,国内外普遍采用成本效益分析法对道路交通安全项目进行评价。道路交通安全项目的效益包括致命事故风险降低挽救的人的生命价值以及非致命事故风险降低节省的伤残费用和减少的财产损失,其中如何科学合理地评价人的生命价值是国内外研究热点和难点之一统计生命价值用于衡量致命事故风险降低挽救的人的生命价值,现已成为道路交通安全项目成本效益分析中不可或缺的基础数据,在国外有40年的研究历史,但在我国起步较晚且相关研究凤毛麟角。基于此,本文以私家车出行者为研究对象,以国内外相关研究文献综述为基础,提出道路交通统计生命价值形成机理模型和评价模型,并于2010年至2011年在大连地区实施交通意向调查,并依据调查数据对模型进行实证检验,最终获得统计生命价值的评估值,旨在为政府进行道路交通安全项目评价提供参考依据。本研究的主要工作包括四方面：首先：在广泛收集统计生命价值相关文献的基础之上,对道路交通统计生命价值的研究脉络进行了梳理。利用元分析方法,整理了1995年至2011年间202篇相关论文,从研究主题、参考学科、研究方法和分析层次四个维度分析了道路交通统计生命价值的研究特征；从评价方法、评价模型和影响因素三大研究主题入手,归纳了道路交通统计生命价值的主要研究成果;总结了国内外道路交通统计生命价值的研究进展,并指出了现有研究存在的不足。其次：基于计划行为理论并结合利他行为理论,引入私家车出行者的风险特征和社会经济特征,提出了道路交通统计生命价值形成机理的概念模型；利用结构方程模型对概念模型进行了实证检验,分析了私家车出行者的风险特征对道路交通统计生命价值的影响作用,并进一步揭示了私家车出行者的社会经济特征对道路交通统计生命价值的驱动作用。再次,基于条件价值法并结合确定性校准法,提出了道路交通统计生命价值的评价思路；利用多项Logit模型,引入个人特性变量,构建了单边界、双边界和三边界两分式统计生命价值评价模型;以购买交通安全产品和支付安全道路为假设场景进行了交通意向调查,对模型进行了实证检验并获得了统计生命价值评估值,从而对三种评价模型和两个假设场景进行了比较分析,并揭示了个人特性对统计生命价值的影响。最后,基于意愿选择法并结合正交试验法,提出了道路交通统计生命价值的评价思路；利用2项Logit模型和混合Logit模型,引入路径特性变量和个人特性变量,构建了4种统计生命价值评价模型；以出行路径选择为假设场景进行了交通意向调查,利用Monte Carlo方法对ML模型进行了150次仿真模拟,完成了模型的实证检验并获得了统计生命价值评估值,从而对4种评价模型进行了比较分析,并揭示了路径特性和个人特性对统计生命价值的影响。道路交通统计生命价值研究不仅可以拓展我国道路交通安全研究和交通经济学研究的领域,同时道路交通统计生命价值的评价值可为评价道路交通安全项目提供基本参数,为保险公司制定和划分致命事故赔偿标准提供参考依据。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the number of road traffic accidents and the death rate of tens of thousands of cars in our country have been at the top of the world. The road traffic management departments in our country have implemented a variety of road traffic safety projects, and the road traffic safety situation has improved. How to evaluate the effectiveness of road traffic safety projects scientifically is a matter of great concern for researchers at home and abroad. At present, the cost benefit analysis is generally used to evaluate the road traffic safety projects. The benefits of road traffic safety projects include the life value of the fatal accident risk reduction and the saving of the non fatal accident risk and the reduced loss of the property, and how to evaluate the people scientifically and reasonably. Life value is one of the hotspots and difficulties at home and abroad.
The value of life value, which is used to measure the life value of fatal accident risk reducing and saving, has become an indispensable basic data in the cost-benefit analysis of road traffic safety projects. It has a history of 40 years in foreign countries, but it started relatively late in our country and related research on Feng Mao Jiao. Based on this, this paper studies the private car travelers. On the basis of the relevant literature review at home and abroad, the model and evaluation model of the formation mechanism of the life value of road traffic statistics are put forward, and the investigation of traffic intention is carried out in Dalian area from 2010 to 2011, and the model is tested on the basis of the survey data. Finally, the evaluation value of the statistical life value is obtained, which is designed for the government. The main work of this study includes four aspects:
First of all, based on the extensive collection of relevant literature on the value of life value, the research context of the life value of road traffic statistics is combed. By using the meta analysis method, 202 relevant papers from 1995 to 2011 are collated. The road traffic statistics are analyzed from the subject, the reference subject, the research method and the analytic hierarchy of the four dimensions. The research features of the value of life are studied. From the three main topics of the evaluation method, evaluation model and influencing factors, the main research results of the life value of road traffic statistics are summed up, the research progress on the life value of road traffic statistics at home and abroad is summarized, and the shortcomings of the existing research are pointed out.
Secondly, based on the theory of planned behavior and combining the theory of altruism, the risk characteristics and socioeconomic characteristics of private car travelers are introduced, and a conceptual model of the formation mechanism of the life value of road traffic statistics is put forward, and the structural equation model is used to test the conceptual model, and the risk characteristics of the private car travelers are analyzed. The impact of road traffic statistics on the value of life, and further reveals the driving effect of the socioeconomic characteristics of the private car travelers on the life value of road traffic statistics.
Thirdly, based on the conditional value method and combined with the deterministic calibration method, the evaluation idea of the life value of road traffic statistics is put forward. By using a number of Logit models and introducing individual characteristic variables, the statistical life value evaluation model of the single boundary, double boundary and three boundary two fraction is constructed, which is assumed as the assumption of the purchase of traffic safety products and the road of payment safety. The scene carried on the investigation of the traffic intention, tested the model and obtained the value of the statistical life value, and compared the three evaluation models and two hypothesis scenarios, and revealed the influence of the personal characteristics on the statistical life value.
Finally, based on the intention selection method and the orthogonal test method, this paper puts forward the evaluation idea of the life value of road traffic statistics, and uses 2 Logit model and mixed Logit model to introduce the path characteristic variables and individual characteristic variables, and constructs 4 kinds of statistical life value evaluation models. The Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the ML model by using the Monte Carlo method. The empirical test of the model is completed and the value of the value of the statistical life value is obtained. Thus the comparison and analysis of the 4 evaluation models are carried out, and the influence of the path characteristics and personal characteristics on the value of the statistical life price is revealed.
The life value study of road traffic statistics can not only expand the field of road traffic safety research and traffic economics research in China, but also the evaluation value of the life value of road traffic statistics can provide basic parameters for the evaluation of road traffic safety projects, and provide the reference basis for the insurance companies to formulate and divide the fatal accident compensation standards.

【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491

【参考文献】