随机路网多时段随机期望——超额用户均衡模型

发布时间：2018-05-05 04:39

本文选题：交通工程 + 随机期望—超额用户平衡　；参考：《计算机应用研究》2014年04期

【摘要】：为更准确描述随机路网环境下出行者规避风险的择路行为,对期望—超额交通分配模型进行扩展,提出一种供应与需求双重不确定条件下多时段随机期望—超额用户平衡模型。在模型中,不仅同时考虑了行程时间随机变化条件下的可靠性和不可靠性,而且还考虑了出行者对行程时间的估计误差和需求的时变性。推导了需求服从对数正态分布和路段通行能力服从贝塔分布条件下期望—超额行程时间的解析表达式。以此为基础,建立起用等价变分不等式表示的平衡模型。研究结果表明:提出的模型是可行的、有效的;随着需求波动程度以及路段通行能力退化程度的提高,高峰时段和非高峰时段的期望最小理解期望—超额行程时间都将随之增大,部分高峰时段的出行者会转移至非高峰时段。
[Abstract]:In order to more accurately describe the route choice behavior of the travelers to avoid risk in random road network environment, we extend the expectation overtraffic assignment model, and propose a multi time stochastic expectation and excess user equilibrium model under the condition of dual uncertainty of supply and demand. In terms of sex and unreliability, the traveler's estimated error of travel time and the time variation of the demand are considered. The analytic expression of the demand obeying the lognormal distribution and the traffic capacity under the condition of the beta distribution is derived. On the basis of this, the balance of the equivalent variational inequalities is established. The results show that the proposed model is feasible and effective. With the increase in the degree of demand fluctuation and the deterioration of the road capacity, the expectation of the minimum expectation of the peak period and the non peak period will be increased, and the travelers in some peak periods will be transferred to the non peak period.

【作者单位】：西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院;西南交通大学峨眉校区;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51278429)
【分类号】：U491

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