M港集装箱运量预测及泊位改造策略研究

发布时间：2018-05-24 05:12

本文选题：集装箱 + 运量预测　；参考：《华南理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：M港是K国最大的海港，同时也是K国所处区域内最大最重要的海港及其周边内陆国家的门户港。M港目前共有泊位21个，岸线总长度3044米。其中，专用集装箱泊位3个（岸线总长约600米），通用集装箱泊位三个（主要用于装卸集装箱，兼顾散杂货）；油品码头2个；通用件杂货泊位10个（主要用于靠泊散货船、滚装船和杂货船）。近年来，M港总吞吐量一直保持稳定增长趋势。2002年总吞吐量为1056.4万吨，2008年吞吐量达到1641.5万吨，年均增长率达到7.6%。2011年M港总吞吐量达到1972.6万吨，同比增长5.1%，其中的集装箱吞吐量达到77.1万TEU，远远超过了M港集装箱设计通过能力的64万TEU，集装箱泊位利用率达到了94.5%的历史高位，现有集装箱泊位已经不能满足不断增加的吞吐量发展需求。尽管近年M港采取如：加深航道，将部分通用泊位列为专用集装箱泊位，采购新的专用装卸设备，，升级改造港口通讯及安保系统等措施以提高码头的整体操作效率及货物通关速度，并取得明显的效果。但依然无法满足近年年均约70万TEU的运量及可预见未来不断增长的运量需求，因此M港对提高其集装箱泊位吞吐能力的需要极为迫切。本文通过对K国及其周边国家经济发展的现状及趋势的分析研究，得出了M港目前存在的主要问题是其现有集装箱泊位、堆场面积不足及码头装卸效率低下，导致其集装箱通过能力不能满足日益增长的集装箱货运量需求。为此本文通过对M港近年货物吞吐量、货物组成等数据、腹地国民经济发展及产业布局等数据进行分析研究，制定了以定性预测和定量计算相结合的方式的预测思路。在此思路的指引下，使用集装箱生成系数法、一元回归分析法、计划增长率法，分别从集装箱腹地生成量，内陆中转量和国际水水中转量三个部分对对未来20年M港集装箱吞吐量进行预测。预测结果显示至2015年、2020年、2025年、2030年其集装箱吞吐量缺口分别为21万TEU、31万TEU、81万TEU、171万TEU。为满足至2020年这一中近期集装箱运量的需求，在充分整合及利用现有码头岸线资源的前提下，提出对其现有11#～14#泊位进行升级改造并同时新建15#泊位的改造建议。通过实施该泊位改造项目后，可为M港新增48.8万TEU的通过能力，同时亦使M港适应世界集装箱船舶继续大型化潮流、实现集装箱运输规模经济、提高港口现代化、专业化、集约化水平，参与国际竞争的需要,以不断捍卫及巩固M港作为区域门户港口的地位。
[Abstract]:M port is the largest seaport in K country, and it is also the biggest and most important port in the area of K country and the gateway of the landlocked countries nearby. At present, there are 21 berths and the total length of shore line is 3044 meters. Of these, 3 are dedicated container berths (total length of shore line is about 600m and 3 are general-purpose container berths) (mainly used for loading and unloading containers, taking account of bulk cargo terminals; 2 oil terminals; 10 berths for general use goods (mainly used for berthing bulk carriers, Ro / ro and groceries. In recent years, the total throughput of Port M has maintained a steady growth trend. In 2002, the total throughput of the port was 10.564 million tons, and in 2008, the throughput reached 16.415 million tons, and the average annual growth rate of the total throughput of the port reached 7.6.The total throughput of the port reached 19.726 million tons in 2011. The volume of container throughput reached 771000 TEU, which far exceeded the 640000 TEU capacity of container design in M Port, and the utilization rate of container berths reached a historical high of 94.5%. The existing container berths can no longer meet the increasing demand for throughput development. Although in recent years, Port M has taken such measures as deepening the waterway, designating some general berths as special container berths, and purchasing new special handling equipment. Upgrading port communication and security system to improve the overall operational efficiency of the terminal and cargo clearance speed, and achieved obvious results. However, it is still unable to meet the demand of about 700000 TEU per year in recent years and the increasing volume in the foreseeable future. Therefore, it is very urgent for M Port to improve its container berth capacity. Based on the analysis of the present situation and trend of economic development in K country and its neighboring countries, this paper concludes that the main problems existing in M Port are its existing container berths, insufficient stacking yard area and low loading and unloading efficiency of terminals. As a result, its container passing capacity can not meet the increasing demand for container freight volume. In this paper, through the analysis and study of the data of goods throughput, cargo composition, the development of national economy and the industrial layout of the hinterland in recent years, this paper makes a forecast idea by combining qualitative prediction with quantitative calculation. Under the guidance of this train of thought, we use the method of container generation coefficient, the method of univariate regression analysis, the method of planned growth rate to produce quantity from the container hinterland, Three parts of inland transit capacity and international water transfer capacity are used to predict the container throughput of M port in the next 20 years. The forecast results show that the container throughput gap by 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 is 210000 TEU, 310000 TEU, 810000 TEU, 1.71 million TEU respectively. In order to meet the demand of container transportation in the near future to 2020, on the premise of fully integrating and utilizing the existing wharf shoreline resources, the paper puts forward some suggestions for upgrading and upgrading the existing 11 #CU 14# berth and building 15# berth at the same time. Through the implementation of the berth renovation project, the capacity of 488000 TEU can be added to M port, and at the same time, M port can adapt to the trend of world container ships, realize the economy of scale of container transportation, improve the modernization and specialization of port. Intensive level, the need to participate in international competition, to constantly defend and consolidate the status of M port as a regional portal port.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U695.22

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