transportation carbon emissions scenario analysis Beijing

  本文关键词：北京市交通运输业碳排放及减排情景分析，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。

北京市交通运输业碳排放及减排情景分析

Carbon Emissions and Reduction Scenarios of Transportation in Beijing

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KE Shui-fa WANG Ya CHEN Yi-gang LIU Ai-yu （School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China）

中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872

文章摘要：在可持续发展的宏观背景下，节约有限物质和能量资源，减少废弃物和环境有害物的排放是环保、低碳的前提，而交通运输业是降低碳排放量的重要领域。因此。微观层面梳理北京交通运输业发展及碳排放状况，并分析其减排潜力，对于促进北京市的低碳发展同样具有积极意义。论文阐述了2（R）1—2011年北京交通运输业发展状况。并对2005—2011年北京市交通运输能源消费而产生的碳排放量进行了测算。从各类消费能源的碳排放量的动态变化得出：煤油的碳排放量是北京市交通运输碳排放量的最主要来源。进而基于交通运输的能源使用结构、道路调控政策措施、不同交通方式结构等视角。采用情景分析方法。依次设置低度、中度和高度三种情景模式．对北京市交通运输业的碳减排情景进行了比较分析。研究结果表明：①北京市交通运输业持续发展．多元化复合型的交运网络目趋完善；②北京市交通运输的能源消耗所产生碳排放量不断增长。主要原因是大量煤油和柴油能源的耗用；③通过改变交通运输的能源使用结构可以有效调减北京市交通运输业的碳排放量。基于全文分析得到如下启示：①北京市交通运输碳排放在未来十年具有较大的减排空间。降低煤油、柴油在能源消费总量中所占比例，，提高天然气、电力在能源消费总置中所占的比例，将有助于减少碳排放的总量；②小汽车对于整个城市交通系统能源消耗量的边际效应远远大于其他的交通方式；③北京市机动车申购摇号制度、机动车尾号限行措施以及对新能源汽车的大力推广是控制小汽车快速增长，减少其能源消费量和碳排放量的必要政策手段。在城市的发展过程中。公共交通具有节地、节能以及环保的优势。应该大力倡导公共交通，加大城市公共交通的投入力度。使得?

Abstr：Under the background of sustainable development, conservation of energy resources and reduction of waste and environmental emissions is the prerequisite of environmental protection and low carbon development. The transportation is an important field of carbon emissions reduction. It is a positive significance for promoting the low carbon development in Beijing of combing the transportation and carbon emissions status and analyzing the emission reduction potential on the micro-scale. The development status of transportation from 2001 to 2011 in Beijing was elaborated in the paper, and the carbon emissions caused by energy consumption of transportation from 2005 to 2011 were also calculated. Drawn from the dynamic change of carbon emissions of different kinds of energy consumption, kerosene is the main source of transportation emissions in Beijing. On the perspective of energy using structures, road controlling measures and traffic mode structures, the low, moderate and high emission reduction scenarios are set to analyze the carbon emissions reduction of transportation in Beijing. The results is shown as follows ： （~）The transportation in Beijing is keeping sustainable development, and the diversified type transportation network is becoming more and more perfect; （~）The carbon emissions of transportation consumption is on the rise, and the main reason is the wide use of kerosene and diesel oil ; （~ the carbon emissions can be decreased by changing the energy structure of transportation. Some enlightenments are obtained as follows：（~The carbon emissions of transportation has a larger reduction space in the next ten years. Reducing the proportion of kerosene and diesel oil occupied in total energy consumption and inc

文章关键词：

Keyword：:transportation carbon emissions scenario analysis Beijing

课题项目：北京市自然科学基金资助项目“北京市碳排放影响因素、削减潜力及低碳发展策略研究”（编号：9132012）.

作者信息：会员可见

  本文关键词：北京市交通运输业碳排放及减排情景分析，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。