天津市道路交通部门节能减排的LEAP模型与政策分析

发布时间：2018-06-08 11:00

本文选题：能源消耗 + 污染物排放　；参考：《天津大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济、人口的快速发展和城市规模的不断扩张，我国城市道路机动车保有量近年来增长迅速，在带来大量能源消耗和温室气体排放的同时，也对大气环境造成了严重影响。针对我国城市道路交通部门能源消耗和排放的研究已刻不容缓。为了研究现有政策对道路交通部门能耗和排放影响并分析不同政策措施的减排潜力，基于LEAP（Long Range EnergyAlternatives Planning System，长期能源可替代规划系统）模型构建了城市道路交通能耗与排放模型，并对天津市道路交通部门在四种情景下（基准情景、现有政策情景、加强政策情景、混合政策情景）2010-2040年的能源消耗、温室气体排放（CO2和CH4）以及四种大气污染物排放（CO、HC、NOx和PM）进行了情景分析与政策模拟。研究结果表明，由于促进公共交通和排放标准管理，，相对于基准情景，现有政策情景在2040年的能源消耗、CO2排放及CH4排放可分别减少13.2%、12.9%和16.3%；四种大气污染物CO、HC、NOx和PM可分别减排50.2%、39.5%、60.6%、80.3%。加强政策情景的节能减排效果最佳，机动车保有量调控是其中最有效的措施。针对四种大气污染物的减排，机动车排放标准管理在所有情景下都是最有效的措施。目前，相对于大气污染物减排，能源节约与温室气体减排是天津市道路交通实现节能减排需要解决的关键问题，在制定节能减排相关政策时，货运部门应该引起相当重视，如大力推广营运货车节能与新能源技术及其燃油经济性。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, population and the continuous expansion of urban scale, the number of motor vehicles on urban roads in China has increased rapidly in recent years, which not only brings a lot of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, but also has a serious impact on the atmospheric environment. It is urgent to study the energy consumption and emission of urban road traffic department in China. In order to study the impact of existing policies on energy consumption and emissions in road traffic sector and analyze the potential of different policies and measures to reduce emissions, a model of energy consumption and emission in urban road traffic is constructed based on the long range Energy alternatives Planning system, a long-term energy alternative planning system. Under four scenarios (benchmark scenario, existing policy scenario, strengthening policy scenario and mixed policy scenario), the energy consumption of Tianjin road traffic department in 2010-2040 is discussed. Scenario analysis and policy simulation of greenhouse gas emissions (CO _ 2 and Ch _ 4) and four atmospheric pollutants (CO _ (2) HCH _ (no _ x) and PM) were carried out. The results show that the current policy scenarios can reduce CO2 emissions and CH4 emissions by 13.2g% and 16.3x% respectively in 2040 compared with the baseline scenario, and the emission reductions of CO0.2HCONX and PM are 50.2nil and 39.50.30.30.35, respectively, because of promoting public transport and emission standard management. The results show that the current policy scenarios can reduce CO2 emissions and CH4 emissions by 13.2% and 16.30.5%, respectively, compared with the baseline scenario. The best effect of energy saving and emission reduction is to strengthen the policy scenario, and the control of vehicle ownership is the most effective measure. For the emission reduction of four kinds of air pollutants, vehicle emission standard management is the most effective measure in all scenarios. At present, energy conservation and greenhouse gas emission reduction are the key problems that need to be solved in Tianjin road traffic to achieve energy saving and emission reduction in comparison with the emission reduction of air pollutants. When formulating the policies related to energy conservation and emission reduction, the freight transport sector should pay considerable attention to it. Such as vigorously promote the operation of freight cars energy saving and new energy technology and fuel economy.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.9;X322

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