基于云证据理论的地铁盾构施工临近建筑物变形安全控制预警决策方法研究

发布时间：2018-06-09 21:47

本文选题：D-S证据理论 + 云模型　；参考：《安全与环境工程》2016年05期

【摘要】：为实现对地铁盾构施工临近建筑物变形安全控制的预警,结合工程实践和标准法规构建了包括监测项目和巡视项目共7个指标的评价体系,并将其划分为一般风险、显著风险、高风险和严重风险4个等级;基于监测信息和专家评价值确定指标特征值,采用云模型构建指标基本可信度分配,基于D-S证据理论对指标进行多层融合,利用蒙特卡洛模拟对建筑物变形影响因素进行敏感性分析;以武汉轨道交通7号线土建工程第3标段金银湖村5栋建筑物为例,对地铁盾构施工临近建筑物变形的安全警情状态进行评价。评价结果表明:4栋建筑物处于显著风险等级,1栋建筑物为一般风险等级,并结合蒙特卡洛模拟对风险最大的建筑物的监测点的影响因素进行敏感性分析,可为建筑物变形安全控制提供决策建议。
[Abstract]:In order to realize the early warning of deformation safety control of adjacent buildings in shield construction of subway, an evaluation system consisting of 7 indexes, including monitoring project and patrol project, is constructed in combination with engineering practice and standard regulations, and it is divided into general risk and significant risk. Based on monitoring information and expert evaluation value to determine index characteristic value, cloud model is used to construct index basic reliability distribution, and D-S evidence theory is used to fuse indicators. Using Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the sensitivity of building deformation, taking the 5 buildings of Jinyinhu Village, the third section of Wuhan Rail Transit Line 7, as an example, This paper evaluates the safety warning state of the deformation of the adjacent building in the shield construction of subway. The evaluation results show that: 4 buildings are in significant risk grade and 1 building is general risk grade, and the sensitivity of the monitoring points of the buildings with the greatest risk is analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation. It can provide decision suggestion for building deformation safety control.
【作者单位】：华中科技大学土木工程与力学学院;中铁隧道股份有限公司;华中科技大学同济医学院附属同济医院基建科;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51378235;71571078) 湖北省自然科学基金重点项目(zrz2014000104) 教育部博士后基金项目(2015M570645)
【分类号】：U455.43;U231.3

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