南京绕越高速仙林段危险品运输风险评估

发布时间：2018-06-13 07:24

本文选题：危险品运输 + 风险评估　；参考：《南京大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：危险品运输过程发生火灾爆炸或有毒气体泄露事故往往给沿线民众、财产及环境的安全造成重大破坏。尽管众多研究学者已经做了很多相关研究,但目前仍存在着有效事故数据缺乏、对特定区域的具体风险分析研究较少、事故后果评价指标单一等缺点,需要研究学者的进一步深入研究。基于长江四桥通车后更多危险品运输车辆将从仙林地区经过以及即将召开的南京青奥会环境安全保障工作非常严峻的事实,本文以南京绕越高速公路仙林段为例,通过实地调查,开展了危险品运输风险定量评估,并最终制定了具体的风险控制方案。在事故概率评估部分,结合该路段的实际情况,基于层次分析法和二级模糊综合评价法,建立了一种新的危险品运输事故概率评估方法。在对事故影响因素进行层次分析时,除了对该路段的危险品、驾驶人员、运输车辆及罐体、道路等常规影响因素进行更全面的分析外,还首次引入了人为故意破坏等特殊因素的影响,使评价结果更加直观、准确、全面。在后果分析部分,首先对南京绕越高速公路仙林段的特征危险源进行筛选,并识别出各危险物质的最不利事故情景和可能事故情景,然后运用ALOHA软件对各事故情景进行对比模拟,在后果表征时除了确定不同事故情境下的安全疏散距离外,还加入了对死亡人数和受伤人数的预测,可为周围人员的快速撤离和医疗救援的快速响应提供决策依据。另外,还根据各风险物质的模拟结果为该区域制作了事故后果风险图。最后,在对事故概率评估和后果分析结果的基础上,为仙林地区的危险品运输风险控制工作制定了具体的风险防范措施和事故应急预案。在风险防范措施中,提出对业务人员采取流程化的培训和管理方案,对槽罐实时生命周期管理,建立与化工园企业的责任连坐制度和信息共享联动机制,同时在道路运营实时管理环节强化对危险品运输车的GPS监控以及收费站对危险品运输车的重点管理等。在事故应急预案中,提出对重点影响区域进行风险监控,同时为仙林地区设计了一套可行的事故应急救援流程,对人员的紧急疏散方案进行重点讨论,并要求沿线各单位定期开展事故演练,提高自救能力。通过实际研究结果表明,本方法可以为危险品运输事故风险概率评估提供新的方法论和研究思路,为仙林地区的危险品运输风险的日常管理提供指导,同时有助于事故应急救援的快速响应和南京青奥会的环境安全保障工作。
[Abstract]:Fire and explosion or toxic gas leakage accidents in the transportation of dangerous goods often cause serious damage to the safety of people, property and environment along the line. Although many researchers have done a lot of related research, there is still a lack of effective accident data, less specific risk analysis on specific areas, and evaluation of accident consequences. The shortcomings of single indicators need further study of scholars.
Based on the fact that more dangerous goods will be transported from the Xianlin area after the four bridge of the Yangtze River, and the environmental security work of the Nanjing Youth Olympic Games will be held very severe. This paper takes the Xianlin section of the Nanjing Yue Yue expressway as an example. Through the field investigation, the quantitative assessment of the risk of dangerous goods transportation is carried out, and the concrete results are finally made. The risk control scheme. In the part of the accident probability assessment, a new probability evaluation method for dangerous goods transportation accident is established based on the analytic hierarchy process and the two level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, which is based on the actual situation of the section. In the analysis of the risk factors of the accident, besides the dangerous goods, drivers, transportation vehicles and cans on the road, In addition to the more comprehensive analysis of the conventional factors, such as the body and the road, the influence of human intentional destruction is introduced for the first time, which makes the evaluation result more intuitive, accurate and comprehensive. In the part of consequence analysis, first of all, it screened the characteristics of the dangerous sources of the Xianlin section of Nanjing over the expressway, and identified the most adverse events of the dangerous substances. The scene and the possible accident scene, and then use the ALOHA software to compare the accident scenarios. In the result of the result, besides determining the safety evacuation distance in the different accident situations, the prediction of the number of deaths and the number of injuries can be added, which can provide the decision depending on the rapid evacuation of the people around and the rapid response of medical rescue. In addition, according to the simulation results of various risk substances, accident consequence risk maps were produced for the area.
Finally, on the basis of the accident probability assessment and the result analysis, the specific risk prevention measures and emergency contingency plans are formulated for the risk control work of dangerous goods in Xianlin area. In the risk prevention measures, the process training and management scheme for the business personnel is put forward, and the real-time life cycle management of the tank tank is built. At the same time, the GPS monitoring of dangerous goods transportation vehicles and the key management of dangerous goods transport vehicles are strengthened in the real-time management link of the road operation. In the emergency plan of the accident, the risk monitoring of the key affected areas is put forward, at the same time, it is set up for the Xianlin area. A set of feasible emergency rescue process is taken into account, and the emergency evacuation plan of the personnel is discussed emphatically, and every unit along the line is required to carry out the accident rehearsal regularly so as to improve the ability of self rescue.
The actual research results show that this method can provide new methodology and research ideas for risk assessment of dangerous goods transportation accidents, provide guidance for the daily management of dangerous goods transportation risk in Xianlin area, and help the rapid response of accident emergency rescue and environmental security work of Nanjing Youth Olympic Games.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U492.336.3;X82

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