基于事故数据与安全服务水平的高速公路路段安全性评价方法

发布时间：2018-06-13 20:25

本文选题：交通安全 + 高速公路　；参考：《交通运输工程学报》2014年06期

【摘要】：分析了高速公路路段的基本划分方法,提出了基于事故点集疏程度的动态聚类路段不定长划分方法,依据负二项分布标定了事故预测模型,提出了基于负二项分布的路段安全性评价方法。引入交通安全服务的水平概念,确定了分级标准,提出了基于安全服务水平的路段安全性评价方法,并进行了实例验证。验证结果表明:分别利用2种方法对京珠高速公路109个路段进行安全性评价时,57.8%的路段评价结果相同;利用基于负二项分布的安全性评价方法评价的安全状况良好、较好、较差、差的路段分别为5、63、36、5个,利用基于安全服务水平的安全性评价方法评价的结果分别为1、64、26、18个,基于负二项分布的安全性评价方法评价的安全等级更符合实际高速公路安全状况。基于负二项分布的安全性评价方法考虑了交通量与线形条件,适用于线形条件复杂的高速公路,基于安全服务水平的安全性评价方法考虑了交通量与事故次数,更适合于线形条件较好的高速公路。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the basic partition method of expressway section is analyzed, and a dynamic clustering method based on the degree of fault point set is put forward, and the accident prediction model is calibrated according to the negative binomial distribution. A method of road safety evaluation based on negative binomial distribution is proposed. The concept of level of traffic safety service is introduced, the classification standard is determined, and the method of road safety evaluation based on the level of safety service is put forward, and an example is given to verify it. The results show that 57.8% of the 109 sections of Jingzhou-Zhuhai Expressway are evaluated by two methods, and the safety evaluation method based on negative binomial distribution is good and good. The results of safety evaluation based on safety service level were 1: 643, 26 and 18, respectively, for poor and poor sections of road, 5, 36, 36, 5, respectively, and the results of safety evaluation based on safety service level were 1 / 64 / 26 and 18, respectively. The safety evaluation method based on negative binomial distribution is more in line with the actual highway safety status. The safety evaluation method based on negative binomial distribution considers traffic volume and linear condition, applies to expressway with complicated linear condition, and considers traffic volume and accident number based on safety service level. It is more suitable for the highway with better linear conditions.
【作者单位】：哈尔滨工业大学交通科学与工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51329801) 辽宁省交通科技项目(201306)
【分类号】：U492.8

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