基于灰色预测与平衡理论的区域高速公路网规划方法

发布时间：2018-06-16 18:54

本文选题：高速公路网规划 + GM需求预测模型　；参考：《燕山大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：高速公路是我国社会、经济、政治以及军事发展的重要纽带,因此高速公路网规划尤为重要,具有重要的现实和战略意义。公路网规划作为交通规划重要的组成部分,需要科学决策和理论依据,为公路建设与规划提供支撑。目前各国学者对公路网规划的需求预测和分析做出了大量的研究,并取得了丰硕的研究成果。而我国高速公路网的规划仍然沿用普通公路网规划方法,较为常见的是四阶段模式法和总量控制法。但伴随着我国经济快速的发展而产生需求多样化,高速公路战略位置愈来愈突出,高速公路路网的需求预测和布局亟需改进和完善。高速公路网规划,需求预测是基础,为路网规模、布局提供依据,确保路网规划的科学合理性。本文通过对以往研究成果全面梳理,在区域高速公路网的交通发生量、分布及分配进行预测的基础上对路网规划布局方案进行优化以及评价。对区域高速公路网规划交通量的发生量预测的研究方法进行总结和梳理,重点研究了GM(1,1)模型,分析影响GM(1,1)模型预测精度的原因,并针对不足提出改进方法从而提高模型预测精度,并通过实例进行验证。针对交通分布的研究,详细介绍了重力分布模型预测方法。对区域高速公路网规划的交通量分配方法进行总结和梳理,由单一目标规划基础上提出多目标规划,建立了诱导阻抗均衡分配模型,提高交通量分配的精确度,并通过实验仿真验证模型,确保改进后的模型实用可行。最后在交通量产生和分布以及交通量分配预测的基础上对山东现有的区域高速公路网的布局进行评价及优化,设计路网布局的优化与评价的方案,建立多目标评价模型,通过VISSIM仿真,验证规划设计的可行性。
[Abstract]:Expressway is an important link of social, economic, political and military development in China, so the highway network planning is particularly important and has important realistic and strategic significance. As an important part of traffic planning, highway network planning needs scientific decision-making and theoretical basis to provide support for highway construction and planning. At present, scholars all over the world have made a lot of research on the demand prediction and analysis of highway network planning, and have made fruitful research results. However, the general highway network planning method is still used in the highway network planning of our country, the four stage mode method and the total quantity control method are more common. However, with the rapid development of economy in our country, the demand is diversified, the strategic position of expressway is more and more prominent, and the demand forecast and layout of highway network need to be improved and perfected. Demand forecasting is the basis of highway network planning, which provides the basis for the scale and layout of highway network, and ensures the scientific rationality of road network planning. Based on the prediction of traffic volume, distribution and distribution of regional expressway network, this paper optimizes and evaluates the layout scheme of road network planning by combing the previous research results. This paper sums up and combs the research methods of traffic volume prediction in regional highway network planning, focuses on the GM-1) model, and analyzes the reasons that affect the prediction accuracy of the GM1 / 1) model. An improved method is proposed to improve the prediction accuracy of the model, and an example is given to verify it. Aiming at the research of traffic distribution, the prediction method of gravity distribution model is introduced in detail. This paper summarizes and combs the methods of traffic volume allocation in regional highway network planning, puts forward multi-objective programming based on single objective programming, and establishes an induced impedance balanced allocation model to improve the accuracy of traffic volume allocation. The model is verified by experimental simulation to ensure that the improved model is practical and feasible. Finally, on the basis of the generation and distribution of traffic volume and the forecast of traffic volume distribution, this paper evaluates and optimizes the layout of the existing regional highway network in Shandong Province, designs the optimization and evaluation scheme of the road network layout, and establishes a multi-objective evaluation model. The feasibility of planning and design is verified by Visual IM simulation.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：U412.1

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