小汽车通勤出行方式向公共交通转移模型研究

发布时间：2018-07-05 16:51

本文选题：通勤交通 + 方式选择　；参考：《北京交通大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：摘要：在我国加快城镇化建设的大背景下,机动车特别是私人机动车保有量迅速增加。尤其在一些经济相对发达大中城市,日益突出的供需矛盾加剧了城市交通拥堵,特别是早晚高峰期间,交通出行状况不容乐观。解决交通拥堵问题主要思路除了加快交通基础设施建设外,还应转变人们的交通出行模式。本文以通勤为切入点,研究促使通勤者放弃小汽车,转向运量大、占地少、资源利用率高的公共交通出行对缓解城市交通拥堵具有重要意义。本文首先运用系统理论,将通勤出行方式选择看成一个系统问题,分析了系统内外因素对通勤者方式选择决策的影响,研究了小汽车向公共交通转移的动力、阻力,以及转移的作用机理。通勤者是出行方式选择的核心,根据转移作用机理,从通勤者心理决策和出行行为特征两方面提出个人方式选择价值取向和活动两个关键因素,利用行为调查数据研究了其与转移的关联关系。基于力学原理定义了转移作用力,对交通工具(包括公共交通和小汽车)服务性能、小汽车通勤者本身对小汽车的依赖等几个主要直接作用力进行了研究,利用力的合成、动能定理等建立了小汽车通勤向公共交通转移意愿模型,划分小汽车通勤者的类型,基于转移意愿模型,利用交通调查数据比较了不同类型小汽车通勤者转移意愿,分析了促使不同类型小汽车通勤者转移条件的差异性。将政府和小汽车通勤者视为有限理性行为人,基于一定交通条件下通勤者转移意愿,利用演化博弈理论研究了公交优先政策下考虑政策制定成本以及不同通勤者间相互作用下转移的演化均衡策略。主要研究成果包括：第一,将通勤出行方式选择问题看成一个系统问题,分析了系统的概念、目标、特征、构成要素及其相互之间的关系等。研究了通勤者进行方式选择的决策过程,分析了系统内外因素对决策的影响。分析了促使小汽车通勤出行向公共交通转移的阻力、动力,研究了小汽车通勤向公共交通转移的作用机理。第二,提出了个人方式选择价值取向的概念,指出其是出行者进行方式选择时体现出的一种内在价值追求的表述,是影响方式选择行为的内在决定因素。分析了影响个人方式选择价值取向的主要因素,分析了交通工具对通勤者的主要价值,对个人方式选择价值取向进行了调查设计。研究了通勤出行链概念、特征和类型,基于转移行为调查数据,利用结构方程模型研究了通勤出行链、个人方式选择价值取向对转移的影响。第三,基于力学原理,提出了转移作用力的概念和类型,从出行时效、便利、舒适、经济等角度研究了公共交通及小汽车服务性能的计算指标,在此基础上研究了公共交通和小汽车所提供服务对小汽车通勤者的作用力。考虑通勤者个人方式选择价值取向及活动,研究了通勤者对小汽车依赖力。以小汽车通勤者为受力主体,对各作用力进行了力的合成。基于动能定理建立了小汽车向公共交通转移意愿模型。第四,从个人属性上按年龄和收入,划分小汽车通勤者类型,利用小汽车通勤向公共交通转移行为和意向调查数据分析不同类型小汽车通勤者转移行为和意向特征,基于转移意愿模型,利用转移意向调查数据对不同类型小汽车通勤者转移意愿进行了比较研究,分析了为促使不同类型小汽车通勤者转移条件的差异性。第五,阐述了公交优先政策的内涵、措施,研究了公交优先政策促进小汽车通勤转移的演化机理,基于一定交通条件下通勤者转移意愿,以政府和通勤者群体为博弈参与人,建立考虑政策制定成本下的演化博弈模型,分析了通勤者转移的六种演化均衡策略。以不同小汽车通勤者群体为博弈参与人,建立了考虑不同通勤者间相互作用的演化博弈模型,研究了通勤者相互作用下的四种演化均衡策略。以一个开通公交专用道为背景,对模型进行了算例分析。论文的创新点主要体现在以下几个方面： (1)将通勤出行方式选择看成一个系统问题,分析系统内外因素对转移的影响,研究了通勤出行方式选择的决策过程,分析了转移的阻力、动力以及转移的作用机理。 (2)提出个人方式选择价值取向的概念、影响因素等,分析了交通工具对出行者具有的主要价值,对方式选择价值取向进行了调查设计,研究了通勤出行链的概念、特征、类型等,利用结构方程模型研究了个人方式选择价值取向、活动与方式转移的关联关系。 (3)引入物理中的力学理论,提出了转移作用力的概念和类型。基于通勤出行方式选择系统主要构成要素,研究了小汽车、公共交通各项服务性能对通勤者的作用力、通勤者对小汽车的依赖力等几个主要直接作用力计算模型,以小汽车通勤者为受力主体,对各项作用力进行了力的合成。利用动能定理建立小汽车通勤向公共交通转移意愿模型。 (4)将政府和小汽车通勤者视为有限理性行为人,基于一定交通条件下通勤者转移意愿,建立考虑政策制定成本下的演化博弈模型,分析了通勤者转移的六种演化均衡策略。基于一定交通条件下不同类型通勤者具有的转移意愿,建立了考虑不同通勤者间相互作用的演化博弈模型,研究了通勤者相互作用下的四种演化均衡策略。
[Abstract]:Abstract: in the context of speeding up the construction of urbanization in China, the number of motor vehicles, especially the private motor vehicles, is increasing rapidly. Especially in some relatively developed and middle cities, the increasingly prominent contradiction between supply and demand has intensified the traffic congestion in the city, especially during the peak period of the morning and evening, the traffic situation is not optimistic. The main problem of traffic congestion is to solve the problem. In addition to speeding up the construction of traffic infrastructure, we should also change the mode of traffic travel. This paper, taking commuter as a breakthrough point, studies the importance of the public transportation with high traffic volume, less land use and high utilization rate of resources to alleviate urban traffic congestion.
This paper first uses system theory to consider the choice of commuter travel mode as a systematic problem, analyzes the influence of the internal and external factors on the choice of commuters, and studies the motive force, resistance, and the mechanism of transfer. The commuter is the core of the choice of travel mode and the mechanism of the transfer function. From two aspects of commuter psychological decision-making and travel behavior characteristics, two key factors of individual mode selection value orientation and activity are proposed, and the relationship between them and transfer is studied by using behavior survey data. Based on the mechanics principle, the transfer force is defined, the service performance of traffic tools (including public transportation and car), and the commuter of the car A number of main direct forces, such as the dependence on the car, are studied. Using the force synthesis, the kinetic energy theorem and so on, the model of the transfer of car commuters to the public transport is established, the type of the commuter is divided, the transfer intention model is based on the transfer intention, and the transfer of the commuters of different types of cars is compared with the traffic survey data. The difference between the transfer conditions of the commuters of different types of cars is analyzed. The government and the commuters of the car are considered as a limited rational actor. Based on the transfer intention of the commuters under certain traffic conditions, the evolution game theory is used to study the policy making cost and the interaction of the commuters under the public transport priority policy. The evolutionary equilibrium strategy of transfer. The main research results include:
First, the choice of commuter travel mode is considered as a systematic problem, and the concept, objectives, features, components and the relationship between the commuters are analyzed. The decision-making process of the commuter selection is studied, and the influence of the internal and external factors on the decision is analyzed. The mechanism of vehicle commuting to public transport is studied.
Second, the concept of value orientation of individual mode selection is put forward. It is pointed out that it is the expression of an intrinsic value pursuit embodied in the choice of the way that the traveler carries out the choice. It is the internal determinant of the choice behavior of the way. It analyzes the main factors that affect the choice of the value orientation of the individual way, and analyses the main price of the traffic tool to the commuter. The value orientation of individual mode selection was investigated and designed. The concept, characteristics and types of commuter travel chain were studied. Based on the survey data of the transfer behavior, the impact of commuter travel chain and individual choice value orientation on the transfer was studied by the structural equation model.
Third, based on the principle of mechanics, the concept and type of transfer force are put forward. From the point of view of travel time, convenience, comfort and economy, the calculation index of the performance of public transportation and car service is studied. On this basis, the force of the service provided by public transportation and car to the commuters is studied. The personal mode of commuter is considered. The value orientation and activity are selected to study the dependence of commuters on the car. The force is synthesized by the vehicle commuter as the subject of the force. Based on the kinetic energy theorem, a model for the transfer of cars to public transport is established.
Fourth, the types of commuters are divided according to their age and income, and the transfer behavior and intention characteristics of different types of car commuters are analyzed by the transfer behavior and intention survey data of car commuters to public transportation. Based on the transfer intention model, the transfer intention survey data are used to transfer the commuters of different types of cars. A comparative study was carried out to analyze the differences in the conditions of transfer for different types of commuters.
Fifth, this paper expounds the connotation and measures of public transport priority policy, and studies the evolution mechanism of bus priority policy to promote the transfer of commuter commuter. Based on the transfer will of commuters under certain traffic conditions, the government and the commuter group are used as the game participants, and the evolutionary game model considering the policy formulation is established, and the transfer of commuters is analyzed. The six evolutionary equilibrium strategy, taking the group of commuters of different cars as game participants, established an evolutionary game model considering the interaction of different commuters, and studied four evolutionary equilibrium strategies under the interaction of commuters. A case study was carried out on the background of a public transit lane.
The innovations of the paper are mainly reflected in the following aspects:
(1) take the choice of commuter travel mode as a systematic problem, analyze the influence of the internal and external factors on the transfer, study the decision process of the choice of commuter travel mode, and analyze the mechanism of the transfer resistance, power and transfer.
(2) put forward the concept of individual choice value orientation, influence factors and so on, analyze the main value of traffic tools to travelers, investigate and design the choice value orientation, study the concept, characteristics and types of commuter travel chain, and use the structure square model to study the choice value orientation, activities and ways of individual way. The relationship of transfer.
(3) introducing the mechanics theory in physics, the concept and type of transfer force are put forward. Based on the commuter travel mode, the main components of the system are selected. The force of the car, the service performance of the public transportation to the commuter, the dependence of the commuter to the car and other main direct force calculation models are studied. Diligence is the main body of the force, and the force is synthesized. The kinetic energy theorem is used to establish the willingness model for commuting to public transport.
(4) the government and car commuters are considered as limited rational actors. Based on the transfer will of commuters under certain traffic conditions, an evolutionary game model considering the cost of policy formulation is established, and six evolutionary equilibrium strategies for commuter transfer are analyzed. Based on the transfer will of the commuters under certain traffic conditions, the test is established. Considering the interaction game between different commuters, four evolutionary equilibrium strategies for commuters interaction are studied.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491

【参考文献】