城市客运交通结构与能耗互动关系研究
发布时间：2018-08-12 15:37
【摘要】：近年来,随着人民生活水平的提高,居民私人汽车拥有量不断增加,从而导致城市小汽车出行比例居高不下,客运交通结构不断发生变化,城市客运交通能耗量逐年增加。面对现今不断紧张的能源环境,研究城市客运交通结构与能耗之间的关系,对优化城市客运交通结构,减少城市客运交通能耗量具有重要意义。本文利用指标影响因素分析方法,对城市客运交通结构与能耗之间的互动关系进行了以下几个方面的研究。 首先,论文分析了城市客运交通能耗的主要影响因素为城市客运周转量、各种交通方式的单位能耗以及城市客运交通结构,得到了城市客运交通能耗的测算模型。对比分析了回归分析法、Laspeyres完全分解法、LMDI分解法和指标影响因素分析法等4种比较常用的能耗影响因素分析方法,根据客运交通能耗的计算公式,选择其中的指标影响因素分析法分析城市客运交通结构与能耗之间的关系,并依此给出了客运交通结构对能耗的影响计算方法。 其次,通过对客运交通结构的分析,确定城市客运交通结构的情景设计方法。并以某市为例,分析其2006～2012年客运交通结构的现状以及不同交通方式的发展趋势,在假设居民的出行特性保持不变的情况下,确定2020年客运交通结构的基准情景,在基准情景的基础上,利用单位能耗指标对各种交通方式的周转量增长速度进行调整,得到2020年客运交通结构的节能情景。 进而,对比分析不同情景下某市交通结构的变化情况,分析发现：在利用单位能耗指标对各种交通方式周转量的增长速度进行调整时,出行比例变化最大的交通方式为城市轨道交通和小汽车；且在节能情景下,降低汽车类(小汽车、出租车、地面公交)交通方式的单位能耗,将会提高汽车类(小汽车、出租车、地面公交)交通方式的周转量增长速度,其中尤以地面公交的增长速度最为明显。 最后,根据客运交通结构对能耗的影响计算方法,得到不同情景下城市客运交通结构的变化对能耗的影响。根据计算结果发现：优化城市客运交通结构,降低小汽车的出行比例,同时提高城市轨道交通的出行比例,可以大幅度地降低城市客运交通能耗量；在利用单位能耗指标对各种交通方式的周转量增长速度进行调整时,随着汽车类交通方式单位能耗的降低,不同交通方式之间的能耗差异不断减小,城市客运交通结构对能耗的影响值逐渐降低。依此计算结果,为城市客运交通结构的节能发展提出几点策略。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the improvement of people's living standard, the private car ownership of the residents is increasing, which leads to the high proportion of urban car travel, the continuous changes in the structure of passenger transport, and the increase of energy consumption of urban passenger transport year by year. In the face of the current energy environment, it is of great significance to study the relationship between urban passenger transport structure and energy consumption in order to optimize the urban passenger transport structure and reduce the energy consumption of urban passenger traffic. In this paper, the interactive relationship between urban passenger transport structure and energy consumption is studied in the following aspects by using the method of index influencing factor analysis. Firstly, the paper analyzes the main influencing factors of the energy consumption of urban passenger transport, such as the turnover of urban passenger transport, the unit energy consumption of various traffic modes and the structure of urban passenger transport, and obtains the calculation model of the energy consumption of urban passenger transport. This paper compares and analyzes four commonly used energy consumption factor analysis methods, such as Laspeyres complete decomposition method, LMDI decomposition method and index influencing factor analysis method, according to the calculation formula of passenger traffic energy consumption. The relationship between the structure of urban passenger traffic and energy consumption is analyzed by using the analysis method of influencing factors, and the calculation method of the influence of passenger traffic structure on energy consumption is given. Secondly, through the analysis of passenger traffic structure, the scene design method of urban passenger traffic structure is determined. Taking a certain city as an example, this paper analyzes the present situation of passenger traffic structure in 2006 ~ 2012 and the development trend of different traffic modes. Under the assumption that the travel characteristics of residents remain unchanged, the benchmark scenario of passenger traffic structure in 2020 is determined. On the basis of the benchmark scenario, the energy saving scenario of passenger transport structure in 2020 is obtained by adjusting the turnover growth rate of various traffic modes by using the unit energy consumption index. Then, by comparing and analyzing the changes of traffic structure in a certain city under different scenarios, it is found that when using the energy consumption per unit index to adjust the growth rate of the turnover of various traffic modes, The most varied modes of transportation are urban rail transit and car, and in the energy-saving scenario, reducing the unit energy consumption of automobile (car, taxi, ground transit) will improve the car (car, taxi, ground public transport) transportation mode. The speed of turnover of taxi (ground bus) is the most obvious. Finally, according to the calculation method of the influence of passenger traffic structure on energy consumption, the influence of the change of urban passenger traffic structure on energy consumption under different scenarios is obtained. According to the calculation results, it is found that optimizing the structure of urban passenger transport, reducing the travel proportion of cars and increasing the travel proportion of urban rail transit can greatly reduce the energy consumption of urban passenger transport. With the decrease of unit energy consumption, the difference of energy consumption between different traffic modes is decreasing with the adjustment of the growth rate of the turnover of various traffic modes by using the unit energy consumption index. The influence of urban passenger traffic structure on energy consumption decreases gradually. According to the calculation results, several strategies are put forward for the development of energy saving of urban passenger transport structure.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U12
本文编号：2179500
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the improvement of people's living standard, the private car ownership of the residents is increasing, which leads to the high proportion of urban car travel, the continuous changes in the structure of passenger transport, and the increase of energy consumption of urban passenger transport year by year. In the face of the current energy environment, it is of great significance to study the relationship between urban passenger transport structure and energy consumption in order to optimize the urban passenger transport structure and reduce the energy consumption of urban passenger traffic. In this paper, the interactive relationship between urban passenger transport structure and energy consumption is studied in the following aspects by using the method of index influencing factor analysis. Firstly, the paper analyzes the main influencing factors of the energy consumption of urban passenger transport, such as the turnover of urban passenger transport, the unit energy consumption of various traffic modes and the structure of urban passenger transport, and obtains the calculation model of the energy consumption of urban passenger transport. This paper compares and analyzes four commonly used energy consumption factor analysis methods, such as Laspeyres complete decomposition method, LMDI decomposition method and index influencing factor analysis method, according to the calculation formula of passenger traffic energy consumption. The relationship between the structure of urban passenger traffic and energy consumption is analyzed by using the analysis method of influencing factors, and the calculation method of the influence of passenger traffic structure on energy consumption is given. Secondly, through the analysis of passenger traffic structure, the scene design method of urban passenger traffic structure is determined. Taking a certain city as an example, this paper analyzes the present situation of passenger traffic structure in 2006 ~ 2012 and the development trend of different traffic modes. Under the assumption that the travel characteristics of residents remain unchanged, the benchmark scenario of passenger traffic structure in 2020 is determined. On the basis of the benchmark scenario, the energy saving scenario of passenger transport structure in 2020 is obtained by adjusting the turnover growth rate of various traffic modes by using the unit energy consumption index. Then, by comparing and analyzing the changes of traffic structure in a certain city under different scenarios, it is found that when using the energy consumption per unit index to adjust the growth rate of the turnover of various traffic modes, The most varied modes of transportation are urban rail transit and car, and in the energy-saving scenario, reducing the unit energy consumption of automobile (car, taxi, ground transit) will improve the car (car, taxi, ground public transport) transportation mode. The speed of turnover of taxi (ground bus) is the most obvious. Finally, according to the calculation method of the influence of passenger traffic structure on energy consumption, the influence of the change of urban passenger traffic structure on energy consumption under different scenarios is obtained. According to the calculation results, it is found that optimizing the structure of urban passenger transport, reducing the travel proportion of cars and increasing the travel proportion of urban rail transit can greatly reduce the energy consumption of urban passenger transport. With the decrease of unit energy consumption, the difference of energy consumption between different traffic modes is decreasing with the adjustment of the growth rate of the turnover of various traffic modes by using the unit energy consumption index. The influence of urban passenger traffic structure on energy consumption decreases gradually. According to the calculation results, several strategies are put forward for the development of energy saving of urban passenger transport structure.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U12
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 任保宽;任秀苹;李晓霞;;国内新能源公交车发展状况及问题探析[J];交通节能与环保;2013年04期
，本文编号：2179500
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