基于复杂网络理论的集装箱班轮航运网络演化研究

发布时间：2018-08-15 15:52

【摘要】：随着全球经济化和一体化发展的快速推进,全球各大地区之间的经济贸易往来活动已经逐渐成为国民经济的重要组成部分,而海上运输由于其运量大、成本低以及货物适应性强的特征已经成为了对外贸易的主要运输方式和重要纽带。自从20世纪50年代以来,集装箱运输便以其具有标准化、安全性、便于操作性等特点,迅速的成为了全球航运网络体系中的重要运输方式。此外,作为定期船运输方式的一种,集装箱班轮运输由固定的船舶进行运输,具有固定的航线挂靠顺序,固定的挂靠港口,固定的靠泊时间窗和固定的运费率,因此,集装箱班轮运输的航线充分刻画了航运网络的演变过程,集装箱班轮航运的发展对全球航运网络体系的演变产生了深远的影响。利用复杂网络理论,将港口子系统和航线子系统结合起来,以港口作为网络节点,以集装箱班轮航运企业运营的航线作为网络节点与节点之间边的连接关系从而构成集装箱班轮航运网络,直观的体现了班轮航运网络中各港口之间的复杂关系。本文选取全球排名前10家集装箱班轮运输公司和100个港口为研究样本,将航运系统抽象为由港口和航线构成的网络,对航运网络的结构特性进行统计与分析,验证了全球集装箱班轮航运网络的小世界和无标度特性。对其演化的动力机制进行深入剖析,充分考虑到现实集装箱班轮航运网络的规模限制与动态发展的演化特征,提出基于“优胜劣汰”的五种机制：节点增加、节点删除、择优连接、反择优删除与重新连接；通过设计港口腹地经济、港口吞吐量、港口区位等适应性指标对港口节点适应度进行度量,构建出一个适应度BA模型；运用复杂网络理论对集装箱班轮航运网络的港口节点度分布进行理论推导,并通过数值模拟验证了该模型的有效性。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of global economy and integration, the economic and trade activities between the major regions of the world have gradually become an important part of the national economy. The characteristics of low cost and strong adaptability of goods have become the main mode and important link of foreign trade. Since the 1950s, container transportation has become an important transportation mode in the global shipping network system because of its standardization, security, ease of operation and so on. In addition, as a mode of scheduled ship transport, container liner transportation is carried out by a fixed vessel, with a fixed route link sequence, a fixed port, a fixed berthing window and a fixed freight rate. The route of container liner transportation fully describes the evolution of shipping network. The development of container liner shipping has a profound impact on the evolution of global shipping network system. Using the complex network theory, the port subsystem and the route subsystem are combined, and the port is used as the network node. Taking the route operated by the container liner shipping enterprise as the connection relationship between the nodes and the edges of the network, it forms the container liner shipping network, which intuitively reflects the complex relationship between the ports in the liner shipping network. This paper selects the top 10 container liner shipping companies and 100 ports as the research samples, abstracts the shipping system as a network composed of ports and routes, and makes statistics and analysis on the structural characteristics of the shipping networks. The small-world and scale-free characteristics of the global container liner shipping network are verified. In this paper, the dynamic mechanism of its evolution is deeply analyzed, and considering the limitation of the scale of the container liner shipping network and the evolution characteristics of its dynamic development, five mechanisms based on "survival of the fittest" are put forward: node increase, node deletion, Through the design of port hinterland economy, port throughput, port location and other adaptive indicators to measure the port node fitness, build a fitness BA model; Based on the complex network theory, the distribution of port node degree of container liner shipping network is derived theoretically, and the validity of the model is verified by numerical simulation.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U695.22

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