巴彦淖尔城区公交出行调查及客流预测

发布时间：2018-09-18 17:30

【摘要】：城市公共交通系统是城市交通乃至整个城市系统中不可或缺的组成部分。随着城市化进程加快，人口急剧增长，城市公共交通问题日益严峻。在此背景下，提高公交系统的运行效率，构建一个可以和私家车形成有力竞争的公交网络十分重要。为此，交通运输部启动了公交都市建设示范工程。而全面的公交出行调查和合理的公交客流分析与预测，可为科学的公交线路规划提供重要依据。本论文对巴彦淖尔市临河区居民出行进行调查，并采用趋势外推法、增长率法和指数平滑法组合预测法，对城市经济指标做了客观合理的预测，结合公交运营现状的调查以及土地利用、道路网等其他信息，建立公交基础数据集，，利用传统的四阶段法对巴彦淖尔市临河区的公交客流需求做出了合理的预测。首先分析城市人口现状分布、规划年各小区的人口，利用不同人口属性、出行次数之间关系建立类型分析模型得到居民的出行总量，中远期则结合城市人口、土地利用与交通需求的关系进行总量的预测；其次采用精度较高的双约束重力模型进行交通分布预测，得到全方式OD矩阵；然后运用非集计理论对影响居民出行选择的出行属性、个人属性和家庭属性加以分析并建立模型，其中随机采用5000个出行者的数据进行标定，再用余下的1261个出行者的数据进行验证分析，得出预测规划年的公交出行分担率，从而得到相应的公交OD矩阵；最后根据巴彦淖尔市临河区综合交通规划，选取主要公交通道利用TransCAD采用SUE模型进行客流分配，预测公交流量分配情况，计算各项评价指标。本论文研究提出的公共交通需求预测的思路和方法，可以为中小城市公交发展规划提供一定的借鉴作用。
[Abstract]:Urban public transport system is an indispensable part of urban traffic and even the whole urban system. With the acceleration of urbanization and the rapid growth of population, urban public transport is becoming more and more serious. In this context, it is very important to improve the efficiency of public transport system and to build a competitive public transport network with private cars. To this end, the Ministry of Transport started the public transport urban construction demonstration project. Comprehensive public transportation investigation and reasonable analysis and prediction of bus passenger flow can provide an important basis for scientific bus route planning. This paper investigates the travel of residents in Linhe District of Bayannur City, and makes an objective and reasonable prediction of urban economic indicators by using the combination of trend extrapolation method, growth rate method and exponential smoothing method. Based on the investigation of public transport operation and other information such as land use and road network, the basic data set of public transport is established, and the demand of bus passenger flow in Linhe District of Bayannur City is predicted reasonably by using the traditional four-stage method. Firstly, the distribution of urban population is analyzed, the population of each district in planning year is planned, and the relationship between different population attributes and travel times is used to establish the type analysis model to get the total travel quantity of residents, while the medium and long term population is combined with urban population. The relation between land use and traffic demand is used to predict the total amount, and the high precision double constraint gravity model is used to predict the traffic distribution, and the all-mode OD matrix is obtained. Then the disaggregate theory is used to analyze and model the travel attributes, personal attributes and family attributes that affect the residents' travel choice. Among them, the random data of 5000 travelers are used to calibrate. Then using the data of the remaining 1261 travelers to verify and analyze, we can get the public transport travel share rate in the predicted planning year, and then get the corresponding bus OD matrix. Finally, according to the comprehensive traffic planning of Linhe District of Bayannur City, The main public transport channels are selected to use TransCAD to distribute passenger flow using SUE model, to predict the distribution of public traffic flow and to calculate the evaluation indexes. In this paper, the thought and method of public transport demand prediction can be used for reference in the development planning of public transport in small and medium-sized cities.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.17;U492.413

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